Political backlash usually follows economic crisis. Everyone knows how the Great Depression fuelled support for extremists on both the left and right. Less well known is the way the original Great Depression – the one that began in 1873 and involved a quarter-century of deflation – led to a wave of populism on both sides of the Atlantic. Could this history be repeating itself?

Some 1930s-style fascists are out there, notably in Greece, Hungary and further east. Yet for most Europeans and Americans, fascism is a toxic brand. Far more common are movements that echo the populism of the late-19th century.

Today’s populists are a motley crew of xenophobes, nationalists and cranks – just like their predecessors. Causes dear to 1870s populists ranged from anti-Semitism to bimetallism. Nowadays anti-immigration and euroscepticism are more likely. In America, the financial crisis begat theTea Party. Europe’s equivalent looks like a populist wave, which many expect to break spectacularly in the upcoming EU parliamentary elections. The real story will be more surprising. Despite the severity of the shocks inflicted on European economies since 2008, most voters will back mainstream parties. Unlike in the 1930s, but as in the 1870s, the centre will hold.

You can see the populists’ media appeal. Compared with the men and women in suits of mainstream European politics, Nigel Farage – the smoking, boozing leader of the UK Independence party – is a newspaper editor’s dream. The same goes for Marine Le Pen, the blonde bombshell of France’s National Front.

As those contrasting examples suggest, there is in fact no such thing as a homogeneous populist movement. When they convene, UKip MEPs are part of the Europe of Freedom and Democracy group. Then there are the so-called Non-Inscrits – MEPs not attached to any of the recognised party groupings in the European Parliament. These include members of Austria’s Freedom party as well as the Dutch Freedom party.

So what does this motley crew have in common aside from varying degrees of hostility to immigrants? The answer is a growing revulsion against European federalism. At a time when the establishment is struggling to increase the powers of Brussels, a big win for these groups would indeed be serious...

The financial crisis was bound to have political consequences. Yet the striking thing about Europe’s populists is not how well they are doing, but how badly. A hundred years ago the ultimate beneficiaries of a deflationary downturn were Social Democrats, not populists. The same looks to be likely today.