North Carolina, host to the 2012 Democratic National Convention, was key to Barack Obama winning the presidency in 2008, making him the first Democratic president since Jimmy Carter to win the “Old North State.”

But Obama’s victory in North Carolina was narrow—he won by about 14,000 votes—and the African-American vote was a central component of Obama’s success.

Now fast forward to 2012. In May, the state overwhelmingly passed a ban on same-sex marriage with 61 percent of voters in favor of the ban; 39 percent against it. That 61 percent, too, included a large number of African-American votes. The day after the ban passed, President Obama publicly announced his support of same-sex marriage, raising the question of whether Obama can count on winning the state again in 2012. Numerous early polls in North Carolina show Republican Presidential candidate Mitt Romney in the lead.

Is North Carolina still a swing state?

Most definitely, says Allan Lichtman, distinguished professor of history at American University in Washington, D.C., and an expert on presidential elections....