Daniel Pipes: Will Turkey's Military Emulate Egypt's?

Roundup: Historians' Take
tags: Islam, Daniel Pipes, Turkey, Arab Spring, Egypt, Egyptian Revolution

Daniel Pipes (DanielPipes.org) is president of the Middle East Forum. © 2013 by Daniel Pipes. All rights reserved.

That is the important question asked today by Steve Coll:

Will Egypt's counter-revolution inspire Turkey's fragmented, avowedly secular military—which once dominated the country's politics, via coup-making—to reorganize and reassert itself? Could the military do so if it tried? … recent events in Egypt will surely stir and tempt Atatürk's heirs in the opposition.

My take: It is hard to imagine, given how the top Turkish brass submitted so meekly to AKP control and permitted the imprisonment of so many of its members that, at this late date, it will find the gumption to challenge Erdoğan & Co.

If there were to be a revolt, therefore, it would more likely come not from the ranks of the generals – who carried out all of Turkey's prior coups d'état – but from some disgruntled colonel fed up with his superiors' supine responses to Islamist domination and inspired by Sisi's bold action in Egypt.

In all, my guess is no, Turkish officers will likely not rebel because of developments in Egypt. But the country's Islamist politicians, who cannot take this outcome for granted, will likely tread more cautiously. (July 31, 2013)

Read entire article at National Review

comments powered by Disqus