Kerry did not take my advice. He did not try something spectacular to shake up the race. He did not name his cabinet. He did not reconvene the Democratic convention to inject new energy into the troops (one of my crazier ideas). He did not even show anger when Osama popped up in a video and made fresh threats.

Hats off to him if he wins. But I am unlikely to conclude that his way was better.

With all that is going wrong on Bush's watch, shouldn't Kerry be far ahead in the polls?

HNN blogger Allan Lichtman thinks not. His model for predicting elections had this one close from the beginning.

But I remain unconvinced.