The election of 2009
Whether Obama wins this second election is anybody's guess. If he loses I shudder to think what might happen.
If the bank bailout plan v. 2.0 goes over well with the Wall Street voters Obama will be able to take a brief bow before moving on to other matters of great importance. If it doesn't? He will be consumed by economic issues for the rest of his presidency, achieving little.
A "no" vote by Wall Street will be worse than the Bay of Pigs. It will be another Cuban Missile Crisis. Only this time the president will have made wrong choices, with disastrous consequences. Instead of a mushroom cloud there will be millions unemployed walking the street with dazed looks on their faces, wondering what the hell happened to them.
Say scenario 2 occurs. How might Obama recover? That's not clear. He would of course have to fire Geithner. That would in itself be a disaster coming so soon after he had appointed Geithner. But getting rid of the treasury secretary wouldn't staunch the bleeding. It would lead to disillusionment, fear, and chaos. Supporters would wonder if Obama knows what he's doing. His political enemies would belittle him and denounce him. In place of those photoshopped Lincoln-Obama images there would be Carter-Obama ones.
To whom would the country turn for leadership? Demagogues. It wouldn't be pretty.
This morning's stock market numbers are an encouraging sign that Geithner may finally have gotten something right. Let's hope so. The alternative is too horrible to contemplate.