Blogs > HNN > GOOD ECONOMIC NEWS/updates

Dec 24, 2008 10:49 am


GOOD ECONOMIC NEWS/updates



Yes, there are more than we may be led to believe:

First, the dollars is falling. That means we owe less and our exporters can sell more. That was the reason the Chinese government reduced the value of the Yuan disregarding global (and Paulson's) howls. The good times may not last as our competitors are probably going to follow suit. But in the meantime, let's enjoy.

UPDATE 1.: As could have been expected, Survey: Manufacturing conditions get a bit better

UPDATE 2: U.S. Durable Goods Orders Fell Less Than Forecast

Demand for computers, machinery and defense equipment rebounded last month, partly offsetting a slump in aircraft bookings. . . .Another Commerce report showed consumer spending adjusted for inflation rose 0.6 percent in November, the biggest increase in two years. . . .Bookings for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a measure of future business investment, increased 4.7 percent, the most since September 2006 . . .

Today’s report, combined with the figures on consumer spending, may lead some economists to raise forecasts for growth in the fourth quarter.

The oil producers are hurting and the rest of us are saving billions. The price of oil has dropped to $39 a barrel. It could not have happened to nicer guys. By the way, examine the charts bellow and note that there was absolutely no correlation between oil demand and oil price. The opposite was true.

Note that global demand started falling in 2005 while oil price egged on by the futures market started to push the price up in 2007. I suspect a foul play of gigantic proportions and cannot but wonder the role played by those seeking to manipulate the outcome of the American presidential elections.

Inflation is down and Americans (unlike their govenment) are acting sensibly:

Economic hardship index dropped for all 11 community types between November and December and jobless rate also dropped unexpectedly.

In other words, just as academic economists have started explaining the reasons the economy has failed to respond to the efforts to revive it, we may be turning the corner just in time for Obama's inauguration.

Interesting. Isn't it?!




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Thomas Barton, J.D. - 12/26/2008

Long term good news can be a costly proposition.. I could train a mediocre fighter to be a world class fighter but if he is brawling constantly with a behemoth his progress will be halting and perhaps even permanently halted.


Judith Apter Klinghoffer - 12/22/2008

I consider anything which will make export driven economies like Japan, China and Germany more consumer driven and anything that will make consumer driven economies like the US more export driven, long term good news. Hence, as painful as it may be in the short term, a weaker dollar and a drop in American consumption is good news. The world economy must be rebalanced. We, and that includes the American government, cannot continue to borrow indefinitely.


Thomas Barton, J.D. - 12/19/2008

Dr. K hit the nail on the head with her Citigroup share price Federal boondoggle post but she is miles off the mark with Good Economic News. This is the worst retail Christmas in the U.S. for the last 50 years and as such is yet another dire indicator of more economic blight for the next two quarters of 2009..For another telling sign look at the Yen valuation versus the dollar. This will crush the export-driven Japanese economy and that is no harbinger of good times just 'round the bend.