A Bradley Effect?
Other factors surely contributed to Hillary Clinton's win--the effectiveness of Bill Clinton's very strong attacks on Obama, the"human" side of Hillary shown in the closing days--but it's hard to explain the stunning discrepancy in the polling (Obama's margin anywhere from eight to fifteen points below every pollster's predictions, including, it seems, the internal polls of the Clinton campaign) or the exit polling (Obama's margin running around five points below the exit poll figures) without taking into account a Bradley effect. The outcome is particularly striking in light of the last major Iowa poll (the Des Moines Register) getting the outcome correct. In caucuses, people have to identify their choice publicly.
The irony in this outcome, of course, is that Clinton has campaigned far more on the basis of identity politics than has Obama. But the New Hampshire result raises serious doubts about the validity of polls in the next major primary (South Carolina), which as of yesterday showed Obama in the lead, and running surprisingly well among white voters.
comments powered by Disqus
Ralph E. Luker - 1/11/2008
What you've written seems right to me, Jon. You really had to read around the press and the net a good bit to find out that the *results* of the NH primary were that HRC and Obama won an *equal* number of delegates to the national convention.
Jonathan Dresner - 1/10/2008
I was really struck Tuesday night by the "winner take all" nature of the discussions. Given how early it is in the primary season, a 2-3% margin of victory in NH isn't really anything to crow about, except that the punditocracy can't seem to get their minds out of the horse-race rut.
- Now it’s the University of Louisville’s turn to remove a Confederate statue
- A fortress built by Alexander the Great after he conquered Jerusalem has been discovered
- Yale students protest decision to keep Calhoun’s name
- Six maps that will make you rethink the world
- Middle Tenn. State President Wants to Strip Confederate General’s Name From Building
- The historian and cartographer Bill Rankin has developed a new way to visualize slavery
- Paula S. Fass says young Americans need required national service
- Historians are now trying to show that the gay revolution also took place in the midwest
- The Unconference Movement Grows – And Historians Are Taking the Lead
- New appeal to "Bring Back Military History"