Today features two House special elections--one in Ohio, the other in Virginia. Both come in heavily Republican districts; both were caused by deaths of GOP incumbents.

On paper, both should yield easy Republican victories. Yet the Ohio race, in particular, appears far closer than expected--an article in yesterday's Roll Call pointed out that the cash-starved RNCC has flooded the district with money on behalf of Bob Latta (who was rebuked for ethical improprieties in a closely contested primary).

In Virginia, meanwhile, Democrats have nominated an Iraq war veteran, Philip Forgit; and though the national party has largely ignored the race, the state Dems have been very active in aiding their nominee, who has been backed by quite a few newspapers in the district.

Should either of these races go Democratic--or even produce single-digit Republican victories--it would be a sign that the plunge of GOP congressional fortunes still has a ways to go.