On Getting Out of Iraq, X: GOP Congressional "Moderates," President Bush, and Their Political Strategy for 2008
It has become clearer to me in the past month or two that the"moderate" Republican position on the Iraq problem is entirely political. Namely, their political strategy has been and will be to call on Bush to withdraw some troops in order ostensibly to put pressure on the Iraq government to"meet the benchmarks." At the same time, they will oppose congressional measures to force Bush to do this. Thus Warner, Voinovich, et al will be in a position to say that they were morally correct and voter-responsive in calling for disengagement.
They of course know that Bush will begin to withdraw the"surge" troops in 2008. Why? Because he has to: the army is seriously overextended. Even the pliant generals acknowledge this. Not surprisingly, this partial withdrawal will be politically convenient insofar as President Bush and congressional Republicans will claim that sufficient success has been achieved in Iraq to justify the surge and continue the war-that we can see the light at the end of the tunnel. The Republican base and some independents will be assuaged. At the same time, Bush and the conservative congressional Republicans will accuse the Democrats of being defeatists and of not supporting the troops. They hope that this strategy will serve to save Republican seats in the election.
Everything will turn on what is happening in Iraq. Despite the administration's spin, all the signs are that no decisive military progress has been made, that the political scene is ever more chaotic, and that the region is in turmoil.
Meanwhile, the mainstream chattering classes debate the pros and cons of the surge as though it just might be working, and they predict that Warner's call for a symbolic, token withdrawal is a significant sign of fissure in the Republican bloc (which it isn't). Most of the pundits essentially ignore the political strategy that Bush and the Republicans are following. Even the Democrats (especially the Blue Dogs and Bush Dogs) seem to ignore this strategy, mainly because they are blinded by fears that they will be accused of"not supporting the troops" or of being"soft on terror." Most of the public, meanwhile, is asleep-or just coping with a broken health care system, heat and drought, storms and floods, a financial crisis, and other woes.