Why Democrats Will Win

I am not predicting that Democrats will sweep the elections in both the House and the Senate. But political science findings over the years confirm that when people are discontented they shift parties.

It doesn't matter what Democrats say they are FOR. Voters will vote for them because they are AGAINST what the majority party has done.

People don't vote for something so much as they vote against something.

Elections are referendums on the past. As V.O. Key noted in The Responsible Electorate (1966):

Critics of the American party system fret because the minority party does not play the role of an imaginative advocate heralding the shape of a new world. In truth, it gains votes most notably from among those groups who are disappointed by, who disapprove of, or who regard themselves as injured by, the actions of the Administration. The opposition can maximize its strength as it centers its fire on those elements of the Administration program disliked by the largest numbers of people.

Given the lengthy list of what's gone wrong recently--Iraq, Katrina, budget deficits, out of control spending, etc.--voters are naturally inclined to favor Democrats.

The election is not so much about the Democrats as it is about the Republicans. Before a single campaign ad was broadcast the Republicans were in for a shellacking.