Political Bloodshed in Iraq -- When It Will End
Iraq has been in an interregnum since Saddam was brought down. So long as the occupation lasts, there is no long-term successor regime. Therefore political jockeying for power must continue -- pari passu with the occupation. Therefore -- so long as the occupation continues -- potential rivals for power (& their supporters) will also continue to be killed; -- at _all_ political levels: municipal, provincial, national.
Thus the longer the occupation lasts, the longer the interregnum, & the longer the political killings go on…And the longer ordinary Iraqis have to live with daily, continuing, fear, bombings, shootings, lack of water & electricity…
The occupation _can_ only end when the US politicians involved, feel they have squeezed the maximum political gain from it. At that point, the political benefits come from withdrawal; staying on means political losses. It is to be _hoped_ that this point is reached shortly after the 15 December elections.
At that point, too, the covert war for power amongst the various groups of Iraqi politicians -- Sunni & Shiite, possibly Kurdish & others -- will no doubt come into the open. The length of this power struggle cannot be predicted -- but winners will eventually emerge. Then & then only, will there be any possibility of peace & security for ordinary Iraqis.
Meanwhile the hapless Iraqis remain hostage to _two_ sets of politicians -- their own & the American. All that the Iraqis -- & their friends -- can do, is pray.
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William Marina - 10/22/2005
I agree with your analysis. The US has increasingly unleashed the Shia Militias, along with the trial of Saddam, conducted by the Shia and Kurds, to put the Sunni into a corner.
As the US withdraws its major assets from the situation it has created, but keeping four large military bases, the civil war will continue with oil revenues very much a factor.
The Kurds and Turks are already at it in the north, while Iran aids the Shia, who are a minority in the Islamic world. Other Islamic nations will continue to come to the aid of the Sunnis, who are the minority in Iraq.
The US' activist, client state, Israel, will, of course, be lurking in the background along with the festering Palestinian issue.
The most recently leaked Memos in Great Britain indicate GeoII/43 has always entertained the idea of bringing regime modification, or change, to Saudi Arabia and Pakistan as well. Oh, and let's not forget Afghanistan, where the bumper opium crop going out to the world through Turkey, has resulted in the insurgents purchase of enormous amounts of new weaponry to use against helicopters, etc., and units the US had trained appear to be moving over in their allegiance.
The visions of the Mad Emperor, GeoII/43 are becoming more like an unending nightmare.
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