Past events predict, but only up to a point. They cannot predict what we have never seen. The Mississippi Flood of 1927 suggested that it is possible to have a devastating and widespread disaster that utterly changes the way people inhabit their environment. Hurricane Camille demonstrated that a large and powerful storm can kill people. Hurricane Andrew showed what happens when a huge storm destroys a wide swath of property.

But we've never really seen what happens when a storm of Katrina's magnitude hits the most vulnerable city in the United States. We're about to now, after decades of warning and anxiety. Maybe the storm will weaken suddenly, or turn abruptly. If not, if not: all eyes are upon New Orleans, a city rich in history and sentiment. All hopes to them now. The future is unknown: please give us something now besides our worst fears.

If not, let's hope that the past history of catastrophe is a guide to how to blunt its worst once the storm moves on.

Ed Schmitt - 8/29/2005

Another interesting effect of the Mississippi Flood, perhaps only indirectly related to Prof. Burke's humane appeal, was the reaffirmation in the mind of then Commerce Secretary Herbert Hoover of the associational principal of a limited, coordinating role of the federal government in the face of economic trials. In the instance of the flood, it worked quite well, drawing on the resources of private charities such as the Red Cross and more local institutions, but several historians have suggested it steeled Hoover against broader use of federal power when a far greater disaster in the form of the Great Depression hit. Yet another case of the importance of applying not just any lesson of history, but the right lesson. At any rate, I join Prof. Burke in wishing health and fortitude to those hit hard by the storm.