public opinion

Walter Lippmann's "Public Opinion" at 100

Concern about what happens to democracy when a society buried in information gives up on the truth and embraces alternate realities is nothing new. What does the work of Walter Lippmann tell us today? 

Brookings: What are White Americans' Attitudes Toward Reparations?

"Recent polling data documents Americans’ general opposition to reparations in the form of financial payments to Black Americans as compensation for slavery."

The Political Scientist Who Warned Us About Polls

by David Greenberg

Political scientist Lindsay Rogers had been warning about the inadequacies of polling for years before the famous "Dewey Defeats Truman" prediction. It appears the news media has failed to learn from his advice. 

The Polling Crisis Is a Catastrophe for American Democracy

While political opinion polls aren't binding, they provide critical information about public affairs between elections. If they aren't reliable, America is at greater risk of truly post-factual politics. 

The History of Pollsters Blowing it Decades before Trump vs. Biden

by Gillian Brockell

While the nation waits for an outcome in the agonizingly close 2020 election, it’s worth examining how we came to rely on polls.

An Embarrassing Failure for Election Pollsters

by W. Joseph Campbell

Pollsters problems predicting the 2020 election deepened the embarrassment for a field that has suffered through – but has survived – a variety of lapses and surprises since the mid-1930s. 

The Truth Is That Most Voters Are Anything but Indecisive! Period!

by Elwood Watson

The stark difference in tone and message between the Democratic and Republican conventions suggests that the parties know a basic fact: most voters have made up their minds. 

He Predicted Trump’s Win in 2016. Now He’s Ready to Call 2020 (Video)

Allan Lichtman describes polls as "snapshots" which are fairly useless for predicting the outcome compared to stable "keys" reflecting how the President's party is perceived to be governing. Watch the video (if you dare) to see his 2020 prediction.

Biden Will Beat Trump, Says Historian Who Predicted Every Presidential Race Since 1984

Polls are “snapshots in time,” Allan Lichtman said. “None of this in the end has any impact whatsoever on the outcome of a presidential election.”

Why Biden’s Polling Lead vs. Trump Isn’t as Solid as It Looks

Mr. Biden’s already narrow polling lead in states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania or Arizona might be vanishingly small after pollsters screen for "likely voters."

Survey: White Evangelicals See Trump As 'Honest' And 'Morally Upstanding'

White evangelicals in the United States, the core of President Donald Trump's political base, have far more positive views of his personal conduct and character than other U.S. adults.

Few Americans Express Positive Views of Trump’s Conduct in Office

Partisan differences in views of Trump’s conduct and agreement with the president on important issues are similar to those expressed in 2018 and 2017. The current survey is the first time these questions have been asked on Pew Research Center’s American Trends Panel; previously, they were asked on telephone surveys.

A history of booing the president at MLB games, from ‘we want beer’ to ‘lock him up’

Herbert Hoover, Harry S. Truman, George H.W. Bush, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama were all booed at baseball games. 

Most Americans say the legacy of slavery still affects black people in the U.S. today

63% believing slavery affects the position of black people in American society today either a great deal or a fair amount.

Most Americans Reject Trump’s “America First” Policy

by Lawrence Wittner

The reaction of the American public to Trump’s withdrawal of the United States from key international agreements has been hostile.  

Poll: Most think Founders wouldn't be pleased with America

(CNN) – With signs of patriotism abounding for the Fourth of July, a new survey indicates seven in 10 Americans think the Founding Fathers would be disappointed by the way the United States has turned out, 237 years after the signing of the Declaration of Independence.But that doesn't mean Americans themselves are displeased. The same poll, released Thursday by Gallup, shows the number who say they're very or extremely proud to be American remains steady at 85%....Despite the high level of patriotism, 71% of Americans think the signers of the Declaration of Independence wouldn't be pleased with the nation today. That number has steadily risen since 2001, when the number stood at 42%....

Richard Parker: After Boston -- The Banality of Shock and Sentiment

Richard Parker,a Nation editorial board member, is an Oxford-trained economist who teaches at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government. He serves as an adviser to Prime Minister Papandreou. He is the biographer of John Kenneth Galbraith....My parents lived through the Depression and Second World War; they’d been children in the First World War; and they’d taught us in the Cold War fifties and sixties not to be fearful but to be brave—and quiet about our bravery. When President Kennedy was assassinated, we all wept—but I don’t remember Walter Cronkite offering therapeutic advice to viewers or Lyndon Johnson keening on about “our” suffering and fears.

2/5ths of Austrians: Hitler not all bad

Forty percent of Austrians believe things were not all bad under Nazi leader Adolf Hitler, according to a poll released Friday by the Market Institute for the Der Standard newspaper. Researchers sampled 502 subjects throughout the country, of varying ages.They found a rise in the number of respondents – 61 percent this time around, mostly elderly Austrians – who favored the idea of a “strong leader who does not have to worry about a parliament or elections” as a leader. The statistic was three times higher than that seen in 2008, 20 percent at the time, the paper reported.Of those surveyed, 42 percent said “not everything was bad under Hitler,” while 57 percent said they saw “no good aspects” to the Nazi era....

America stopped worrying, loves the Bomb

Nuclear war is unthinkable. At least, that’s what we like to tell ourselves. Given the mass death and devastation from an atomic strike, surely only a desperate despot would even consider such a strike.Slim Pickens joyfully rides a nuclear bomb onto a Russian target in the classic satire, “Dr. Strangelove.”Well, think again. A new study finds that, among the American public, the taboo against the use of nukes is far weaker than you might imagine.“When people are faced with scenarios they consider high-stakes, they end up supporting—or even preferring—actions that initially seem hard to imagine,” said Daryl Press, an associate professor at the Dartmouth College Department of Government....

Gay Marriage, DOMA And The Dramatic Shift In Public Opinion In One Year

It is remarkable how fast the issue of same-sex marriage has moved the American public. Of course, some long-time proponents will argue the opposite, that it has taken far too long for it to gain acceptance. And they say that there is no shortage of efforts around the country to block or overturn the practice.But there is no question that since Vice President Biden first announced his support for the issue last May — jumping the gun on President Obama, whose position on the issue was said to still be "evolving" — things have changed rapidly. Almost immediately, and far more significant, was Obama's declaration he felt the same. After that came dramatic shifting in public opinion, where for the first time ever, polls show that more people support gay marriage than oppose it. It became a cause to be celebrated at the Democratic National Convention last summer. Voters in three states, after an unbroken string of defeats, chose to legalize gay marriage in November. And it got considerable attention at Obama's inauguration in January, where he said, "Our journey is not complete until our gay brothers and sisters are treated like anyone else under the law, for if we are truly created equal, then surely the love we commit to one another must be equal as well."...