And the Super Bowl Teams Will Be . . .

As my buddy Rob (Many of you know him from the Red Sox Diaries as"Thunderstick") just said to me in an email, let's start with the JV Game first.

The Eagles versus the Falcons game may be fun to watch. Dunn, Vick, and Duckett, now known as the DVD boys, may run rampant. Vick may (I daresay will) do something that will make your jaw drop. The Falcons have the most sacks in the league, yet they also give up a whole lot of passing yards.

In the Sports Illustrated email newsleter subscribers received this morning, the venerable Paul Zimmerman speculated that this disparity has evolved because the Falcons have better defensive linemen than they have defensive backs. This last fact is undoubtedly true, but as an explanation it does not suffice. Sacks often come from many sources, but linebackers and blitzing safeties are almost as likely to get sacks as a defensive lineman, and teams that blitz a lot are going for the sack more than teams that do not blitz. But of course blitzing is a high risk, high reward gambit. It leaves cornerbacks on the island. It eliminates at least one, usually more, linebacker and safety from coverage. In other words, a team that puts a lot of pressure on the quarterback may have superior defensive linemen, but they also may be putting a lot of pressure on their defensive backs. This, for example, is why teams have been loathe to blitz Peyton Manning (Excuse me, the Unstoppable Peyton Manning) -- because doing so exposes even the best defensive backs, and in that situation the receiver always has the advantage.

So, you ask, what does this wonkish little exegesis have to do with this game? (Yes, I know that an"exegesis" is generally a close analysis of a religious text; as you may have guessed by now, Rebunk believes in sport-as-religion) Well here is what: For all of the talk about TO, the fact is that the Eagles are a much improved team from last year even with him on the sidelines. Even with what many have termed subpar receivers, or at least no deep threat, with Donovan McNabb's ability to scramble away from trouble, his receivers will have time to get open. The Falcons' big defensive strength will be neutralized, their weakness exposed. The Eagles will score. Which will open up the running game.

I do not think the Falcons can counter, as even the most explosive running teams -- and Vick's scrambling ability is almost akin to a passing threat that opens up the run (Oddly, then, Vick's ability to run opens up the run) -- are at a huge disadvantage if they have to play catchup. And this Eagles' defense is much improved over last year's.

From a fan's perspective, I'd love to see the Falcons win. Of course one can wonder if their bandwagon fans deserve it, but that's another argument for another time. In any case, I just do not see it happening. The Eagles get that monkey off their backs. At least until the Super Bowl.

Eagles 31 Falcons 17

Now on to the Big Boys.

So obviously our regular readers know who I am picking. There is no way I am going against the Pats and their run toward becoming one of the greatest teams in the history of the NFL. I want them to win. But the beauty of being a Pats fan is that there is little wishful thinking involved; they are going to win.

Here is the deal: Bill Belichick gets to gameplan against a rookie quarterback whose star has been fading for a month and whose team threw fewer passes than any other team in football. Yes, that running attack is daunting. Bettis and Staley are a great one-two punch. But will that be enough if they become one dimensional? Belichick and Romeo Crennel (a great, great choice if the Browns are smart enough to pull the trigger, by the way) have a history of attacking a team's strengths rather than its weaknesses. They will be ready to take on the run. They will find a way to minimize the damage by harassing Roethlisburger when he drops back to pass. And while it is no longer an especially brave prediction, Tedy Bruschi will make at least one huge play.

But, you say, the Pats have to face that Pittsburgh defense, and it is the best in the league. Ahh, yes. The best in the league. The best. The Patriots have won two of the last three Super Bowls. They won when they faced the Rams, who were, of course,"the best," the"Greatest Show on Turf." They beat the Panthers, who had"the best" defense. They beat the Colts who were the greatest offensive machine since hyperbole hyperbole hyperbole . . . The point is, Tom Brady is 7-0 in his career in playoff starts. The Steelers, meanwhile, choke like a toddler in a button factory in big games. The Patriots' defense does not daunt Tom Brady. The Pats, with Charlie Weis and Belichick pulling out all of the creative stops, will score enough to win. They almost always do.

Almost, of course, because on Halloween the Steelers beat the Pats in a game that was not as close as the 34-20 score, you say? Sure. Fair enough. But here's the thing. The Patriots did not have Corey Dillon in that game. The Patriots had just lost their two starting cornerbacks, including Ty Law in the first quarter of that game. Belichick has had almost three months to adjust, as has the newly configured secondary. And what neveryone seems to forget is that in that game, the Pats also lost two starting linemen. So let's forget about Halloween. And while Heinz field will be an advantage to the Steelers, the Patriots know a little something both about playing in a hostile crowd (recall the last time these teams met at Heinz Field for an AFC Championship game) and about playing in cold weather.

Both teams have been refreshingly silent when it has come to trash talk, preferring to puff up the other team rather than give them bulletin board material, which both coaches have inevitably made up anyway. Of course Belichick would probably cut any Patriot who ran his trap, and Bill Cowher would probably smother to death with his distractingly lopsided moustache after bashing him unconscious with his freakish jaw any Steeler who yapped. Motivation, in other words, will come from where it should.

Enjoy this one. it should be a hell of a smashmouth football game.

And the Patriots are going to win. Let's say 27-20.