The Hosni Mubarak Rule

Matthew Yglesias hits 'em where it hurts here:

it's worth noting how far we've gone toward lowering the goalposts for "success" in Iraq. If you'd said before the war that over a year (and 1,000 U.S. fatalities) after the fall of Baghdad, U.S. forces would still be taking large numbers of casualties in an effort to create a government dominated by Shiite fundamentalists that has little capacity to exercise control over broad swathes of Iraqi territory you would have been labled a major-league pessimist about the venture. Now that's the hope of the optimists. It's probably right to think that that's a better outcome than any of the feasible alternatives and, indeed, that if we'd lowered our goalposts sooner we'd actually be in a better position right now. Nevertheless, it's a startling climbdown from the happy promises that were made before the war was undertaken.

This, I think, is just about right.  I remember saying in the middle of last year that if we could put in a Hosni Mubarak, that would be a profound success.  I was, of course, roundly criticized by neocon true believers who thought that the seeds of liberal democracy were sprouting.

In my view, though, it's heartening that the goals of so many are being lowered.  I'm hearing whispers that the evildoers from the State Department on the ground in Iraq are working to prop up a less-tyrannous-than-Saddam strongman, much to the chagrin of their boss, Ambassador Negroponte, and the neocon ideologues.  The strongman idea, of course, serves U.S. interests, if they are defined as "something other than total anarchy in a country of 25 million Muslims who now really hate America" or the alternative, "indefinite occupation."

The murmurs from Rumsfeld and Abizaid (both links reg. req'd.) seem to indicate that we now want out.  Which, of course, is good, as well.  The only worry is where the troops leaving Iraq may be headed.  According to Abizaid:

"I think as we learn more and more from what we've uncovered in the Fallujah pocket, it will take us to places that were quite unexpected," he said, adding that he meant places outside of Iraq.

While I'm not optimistic about the Bush foreign policy in a second term, I think it's likely to either get worse or get better, not stay the same.  We'll see, I suppose.

Cross-posted back home.