LBJ in 1968

by Cliopatria

Here’s a rough counterfactual to think about, inspired by Bush’s reelection. What if LBJ had run in 1968?

Most historians consider LBJ’s withdrawal in 1968 a direct consequence of the growing opposition to the war and perhaps, as we have learned more recently, of his own private doubts and agonies.

But what if his morale had not tanked? What if LBJ in 1968 was more the man people thought he was than the man who shocked everyone by withdrawing from the political battle? What if he roared back to the campaign trail after New Hampshire (where he won, after all)? What if he looked at his Great Society with care, picked out the popular things, and started hammering on them day after day. What if he had defended the war with the same energy?

I doubt if we would have gotten a more peaceful 1968. But how different would 1969 have been if America’s most important southern liberal had fought for reelection against both the antiwar movement and conservatives?

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Ed Schmitt - 11/8/2004

It is striking how similar the electoral maps of 2004 and 1968 look, substituting of course the combined strength of Wallace and Nixon in what are considered today "red states" and trading California for Texas. It is a very interesting question, but the 1966 elections already suggested the fading popularity of Great Society programs after the urban unrest in the previous 2 summers, and Johnson knew that by signing the Civil Rights Act and the Voting Rights Act he had lost the vast majority of his southern base. The Sunbelt, Solid South shift was already underway by 1968. Could LBJ have peeled off another state or two in the upper South or elsewhere? Perhaps. Of course the northern Democratic party may have become even more polarized than it remained under Humphrey after Kennedy's death and McCarthy's disinterest. And by the summer of 1968, both major party platforms basically agreed that it was in American interests to get out of Vietnam, with only the speed and the means in doubt, so it would have been very hard for Johnson to keep hammering on the necessity of the war. Casualty rates were so much higher in Vietnam (obviously than in our current situation) that it was touching small town, heartland, "red state" America in a much deeper way. In the end, I don't know, but I think it unlikely that either selective trumpeting of Great Society successes or a renewed attempt to call on a martial spirit (LBJ proved he was lousy at this in his attempt to castigate the "Nervous Nellies") would have saved Johnson. Say what you will about G.W. Bush, his impassioned, simple justification for war in Iraq is much more politically effective than anything Johnson ever said to justify Vietnam.

Oscar Chamberlain - 11/7/2004

James, I was 15 then, too. I wasn't a political junkie, but I found some parts of politics interesting. I may remember the image of Johnson that you saw. I think it was in the paper either than day or the day before. Like you, I thought he looked horrid, but I didn't make the jump to a correct conclusion the way you did.

James Lindgren - 11/7/2004

Oscar writes:

"But what if his morale had not tanked? What if LBJ in 1968 was more the man people thought he was than the man who shocked everyone by withdrawing from the political battle?"

While LBJ's withdrawal came as a complete shock to most, it wasn't to me. I was 15 years old at the time and a real political junkie.

When a friend asked what LBJ would be talking about that night, I said that LBJ was probably going to withdraw from the race for re-election. As I recall, LBJ hadn't campaigned much to win New Hampshire, which he won by 8%, but it looked like he would have had to campaign from then on to win the nomination (which he almost certainly would have won decisively with effort).

LBJ just looked awfully weary to me, so I predicted his pulling out. If at the time I had known then what a driven man he was, I might not have made the right guesss.

Lest you think I'm claiming to be a good prognosticator, a couple weeks ago I predicted that Kerry would win in 2004.