Blogs > Cliopatria > Sox Diary: (Or: Historicism is Dumb)

Oct 11, 2004

Sox Diary: (Or: Historicism is Dumb)




I am a historian. Which is why I think I am pretty well qualified to proclaim that history is largely irrelevant when it comes to this Red Sox-Yankees showdown. Everyone invokes ghosts and curses and especially the past, as if the past determines the future. If being a historian gives me any particular insight here, however, it is that history is most misused when people try to use it to predict the future, either short- or long-term. That is not to say that history does not tell us anything of course – trends matter, the past and present and future are inextricably bound, and I do think historians can have important things to say about the present using our perspective and insight and acumen. But it is to say that most people who talk about the Red Sox and their oft-tortured past misuse history as something that is somehow inevitable or predetermined, that history is a force independent of the variables that weigh upon it. This is, of course, nonsense.

I raise this today because, not surprisingly, in the quest to fill column inches for the insatiable Red Sox Nation, the hackneyed questions about the past came up today in the Globe and elsewhere. It happens every time the Sox make it this far. Bob Ryan or Dan Shaughnessy, or, today’s culprit, Bob Hohler, goes in and surveys the players who almost universally respond the same way: “History has nothing to do with if we win or lose. We were not here in (1986, 1978, etc.).” And so forth. Usually the reporter then paints the Sox players as cliché-spewing jocks. But the reality is that the question, the conceit, is the cliché. And when asked a clichéd, indeed stupid, question, athletes are inevitably going to respond with less-than-unique responses. The only serious alternative answer would be something along the lines of “Yes, Bob, we are burdened with a historic yoke here and we are likely to lose, probably in self-immolating fashion.” And what athlete would ever say something so foolish and self-defeating?

Again – history is not predetermined and there is no such thing as historical inevitability except in the narrowest sense – at a point things become inevitable only because they happen, but at some point most all historical events are avoidable, or more significantly, could play out in vastly different ways. To pretend otherwise is not to think historically, but rather in ways best categorized as historicist. Historicism believes that events are preordained. Historicism believes that history involves the inevitable. Historicism believes in the Curse of the Bambino. Historicism believes that 1918 determines 2004. Historicism is intellectually sloppy. Historicism is dumb.



comments powered by Disqus

More Comments:


Jesse David Lamovsky - 10/13/2004

Not for nothing, but the butchery of both Matsui and Ramirez in left last night makes me glad that the Indians have the services of glove-wizard Covelli "Coco" Crisp in that position. Obviously Coco isn't the force at the plate that either Ramirez or Matsui is, but their displays in the field last night were just painful. You'd better hit if you're as bad as those two are out there.

While I agree with Derek's essential point, it would be unfair to lay 100% of the blame for the Curse talk on the Boston media. The fans of New England seem to have long taken the attitude that the other shoe is bound to drop at some point (much like Cleveland fans). I've never been among Boston fans in their natural habitat, so I may be full of s--t on this (I'm sure Derek will tell me as much if I am), but it seems as if they expect disasters out of the Red Sox. I don't believe it's altogether just to blame this state of mind on Bob Ryan or Dan Shaughnessy, although they fan the flames of negativity, to be sure.

Another thing- painting the Red Sox as an exceptional historical foil of the Yankees is not only somewhat historically inaccurate (New York has kicked Boston's ass for 84 years? Sure they have, but join the club- New York has kicked everyone's ass for 84 years!), but places an enormous and unfair amount of pressure on the club when it comes time to play the Yankees. Whenever anyone else in the American League plays New York, the pressure is on the Yankees, because the Yankees are always expected to win. When Boston plays the Yankees, the inverse is true; the Red Sox have to, have to, beat New York, because of the Curse, because of 1949, 1978, and so on. It is difficult enough to beat New York under any circumstance, but throw in the amount of pressure that gets placed on the shoulders of the Red Sox in the context of the rivalry and the Curse, and it is small wonder that the Sox haven't beaten New York in a meaningful game since 1904. I can only imagine how harder it would have been for the Indians to compete with New York in the '97 and '98 playoffs had a "Curse of Perenial Second Place in the 50s" had been thrown in for good measure. And would Kansas City have been able to beat the Yankees in the '80 ALCS had there been talk of a "Curse of Chris Chambliss"? It just seems whacked to single the Red Sox out as a special victim of the Yankees. Not only is it of tenuous historical accuracy, in light of New York's overall domination of baseball since 1921, but it crushes every Red Sox team under its weight. It doesn't allow them to just go out and play the Yankees loose.


Richard Henry Morgan - 10/13/2004

That's right. There's not one definition of what counts as clutch, any more than there was one definition of what counted as a vote in the newspapers' recount of Florida. The best we can do is argue for our own definitions, make them explicit, and run the numbers. Geeks unite!! And the idea (which seems implicit in Beane's view) that one can predict performance in the clutch by overall performance measures, seems to beg the question. There are any number of players who bat less well with runners on base, or better with runners on base. Just as there are any number of players whose performance in playoffs is better than or worse than their regular season performance. Of course, one should make allowances for the fact that the competition is tougher in the playoffs than the regular season, so I think it best to control for that by just comparing the numbers of teams that play each other in both the regular season and the playoffs.


Greg Robinson - 10/13/2004

Derek

I think we're thinking along the same lines in regards to Moneyball. Excellent book, but there's some definite holes in Beane's theories. I think over the long haul, his statistical (or should I say Bill James') analysis can obviously defy the odds and make a team of seemingly mediocre players very, very good. But in a 5 or 7 game sample size, those same stats are made nearly irrelevant. Notice the A's playoff record in the Beane era. You need the big stick and the clutch performers to win a playoff series.


Greg Robinson - 10/13/2004

Great reference to Summer of '49 and Tommy Henrich, Ben. Very appropriate.


Derek Charles Catsam - 10/13/2004

Clutch should be quantifiable, I believe. The problem is one of definition. Does an average pf performances in whatever we call clutch situations count? Even if the numbers do not bear it out, what if a guy hits one home run to win a game but has hit .124 after the 7th with guys on in one run games? Are all postseason at bats clutch? The problem in baseball more than any other sport is that we sometimes do not allow numbers to matter, we rely on our perceptions. It is akin to fans who rely on "iontangibles" to define greatness. On the one hand, we do not want to deny that a guy can be great for reasons outside of the box score, and certainly someone like Varitek fits. At the same times, fans on Sons of Sam Horn have a nickname for Jeter, and that is "Captain Intangibles" for the way that guys like the insufferable Tim McCarver gush about his intangibles.

I'd certainly be willing to use this series as a mini-test case. The question now becomes what criteria we use.

My eyes sure tell me that Matsui should qualify by any criteria.
dc


Richard Henry Morgan - 10/13/2004

It would seem to me that "clutch" should be a quantifiable concept, at relatively, by way of rank ordering at least. And if it is, then Beane either is right or wrong. Let's take the figures for this series, when it's done, and try to come up with some quantification of the concept.


Ben H. Severance - 10/13/2004

Hideki came into his own in last year's postseason (where he hurt Boston as well, sorry Derek). I've heard people call him the new Paul O'Niell for the Yankees, but after reading Summer of '49, I prefer to compare him to Tommy Henrich; nothing flashy but watch out in those big games. And as for not being a power threat, well 31 dingers is pretty good, modest by current homerun standards, but serious pop nonetheless.

Overall, both Boston and New York have very formidable lineups. Either team will match up well with the Cards, who should slay Houston in five games.


Derek Charles Catsam - 10/13/2004

Greg--
That might be a decent post for down the road. i agree -- moneyball might be overstated. What i think does work is an emphasis on some moneyball things with an acknowledgment that it still requires some stars and some expenditure of moolah to make for a successful team.
dc


Greg Robinson - 10/13/2004

On a tangent, and something to be saved for after the playoffs, I would like to see a discussion of Moneyball and Billy Beane's theories. Your clutch comment made me think of it, Derek. Beane thinks being clutch is b.s. I think his playoff record may prove his own theory wrong.


Greg Robinson - 10/13/2004

Predicting history is one thing, but a winning tradition in a sporting context is another. I do think there is some validity to the .1% theory, that is, that sports writers plant that seed of doubt in their head rather than Jonny Damon or David Ortiz actually fixating on the 'curse' and therefore making it an issue. But that said, all these players are aware of the respective traditions of their teams. Red Sox players, with or without sports writers, have to be aware of the monkey on their backs. Likewise a team like the Yankees, whether it is Gary Sheffield or Derek Jeter, know that they are a part of a winning tradition and that does affect psyche. Just the fact that this Yankees team still has guys like Jeter, Posada, Williams and Manager Joe Torre provides a link to the mid-late 90s and 00s when the Yankees re-established themselves as a dominant playoff team. No one on the Red Sox really has that experience. Schilling has won, but only once. He was dominant, but one succesful playoff campaign does not a winning tradition make. While it does not predict the outcome (anyone who thinks that last night's game means the Sox can't win is crazy) it is a significant factor and can at least influence the outcome


Derek Charles Catsam - 10/13/2004

And he's hugely clutch. He fits in damned well on that team, and at some point we need to stop him when he is up whith the game on the line if we want to win.
dc


Greg Robinson - 10/13/2004

That opposite field double that put the Yankees on the board was a very nice piece of hitting. He's not the home run threat that he was in Japan, but Matsui is a darn good situational hitter.


Derek Charles Catsam - 10/13/2004

Not surprisingly, I'll post today's Sox Diary on Rebunk a bit later.
dc


Derek Charles Catsam - 10/13/2004

Ben --
I cannot in good conscience like a Yankee. But I can fear the hell out of some of them. I fear the hell out of matsui.
dc


Ben H. Severance - 10/13/2004

Richard,

I certainly like Matsui, but I have to concede that he is no gold glove fielder. And you're right to point out that there were several missed chances in the field by both teams last night.

A great game, though. This series is off to an exciting start.


Richard Henry Morgan - 10/13/2004

Ben, I saw the replay from the left field foul-line stands. Matsui fixated on the ball and drifted back from the start. You're supposed to take a gander, turn, and book it, and look up again. Maybe the wind had him looking the whole way. But if he had gone straight back at speed from the start, the catch would not have been too hard. I don't fault the other one. He went full out and it just grazed the top of his mitt. And yeah, he was great at the plate.

The shakiness of the Yankees staff is something beyond the creditable performance of Mussina.

Manny was well, Manny. He might be the best batter in baseball. That first shot that got by him was not well played, and the pursuit angle on Bernie's shot wasn't all that great. And his throw to second was only 20 yards off-line. Still, he's not half as bad as I had said he was.


Ben H. Severance - 10/13/2004

You are overly harsh, Richard. A guy drives in five runs on three hits (two of them doubles), then slams into the wall in an effort to catch a deep drive to the warning track and all you can say is "Matsui looked shakey." Had he bungled a shallow fly or missed a cut-off man with a throw, and did so more than once, then you can call him shakey, but not when he fails to make a Willie Mays catch in the outfield. I guess you thought Mussina's failure to toss a perfect game demonstrates that the Yankee staff is shakey, too. You're being a little too demanding.


Ben H. Severance - 10/13/2004

Derek,

I have nothing against the Bosox, nor am I particularly fond of the Yankees, but I have come to like Matsui. Like Ichiro in Seattle, I am delighted to see Japanese ballplayers breaking into the American pasttime in such an impressive way. And last night it was fun to watch Matsui rip Boston pitching apart. And let's be honest, Schilling sucked bad. And given Pedro's NY woes, I wouldn't be surprised to see Matsui drive in another five runs. Anyway, I hope you can take comfort in knowing that Boston is providing a valuable international service by enduring the hitting prowess of Godzilla. It all makes for good diplomatic relations. So, thank you Boston for you global sacrifice and hit on you grand Samurai of baseball!


Richard Henry Morgan - 10/13/2004

Saw last night's game. Ramirez had made a liar of me all year, making solid catches in left field -- though he continued to look shakey on any grounder he had to charge. Should have cut off that ball. Matsui looked shakey in the field too. But if Schilling is going to be subpar for the series, then I think that just about evens things up, and we could have a contest.


Richard Henry Morgan - 10/12/2004

I think you're both right. And if the writers wouldn't plant the seed, then historicism would be slain publicly, for all to see. In fact, I think it is going to be slain this year despite the .1% doubt, because the Sox are that much better than the Yankees. That much better so that they can entertain doubts and still win. But what then happens when the "agon" is gone? Watching the Sox lose in the future will not taste as sweet, nor will future victory for Sox fans. It's the pain that counts, that gives life its seasoning.


Tom Bruscino - 10/11/2004

Derek,

You know I agree--dammit I have to, since my Cleveland teams haven't won anything in forty years--but the problem isn't the voodoo of curses or any of that crap. The problem, what has you so fired up, is the seed of doubt planted by these friggin' yahoos who insist on talking about curses and voodoo and all that crap. To paraphrase Crash, "If you think that's why you are losing, that's why you are losing." Meaning, even if 99.9% of a player doesn't believe in all the curse nonsense, that .1% might just show up at just the right or wrong time, and make all the difference.

If Boston sportswriters actually gave a damn about the Red Sox winning it all (and thus freeing the rest of the country from this yearly spew of angst), they would not try to sabotage their home team by implanting in heretofore perfectly confident players the .1% idea that the bogeyman might make them lose. Of course, the Sox might just have the cure for this in Manny Ramirez, since it is not exactly clear he even realizes that he is playing baseball games that actually have meanings.

In the meantime, the rest of us will watch and be torn between whether we want the Red Sox to win and end this interminably obnoxious streak, or if want them to lose so all of us can watch our local Sox fan (you) go through the strangely entertaining yearly fit of despair.

I want the former, so maybe everyone will start paying attention to Cleveland fans' year long self-flaggelation. That way ratings will go down since no one cares about our small market city, and we can get some league commissioners to start fixing things in our favor so we can win and end our misery.

Ahh, but I dream.