October Surprise?

by Cliopatria

This is less a commentary than an open invitation for speculation. Toward the end of every Presidential election cycle pundits and other observers speculate as to whether an October Surprise, an event, revelation, or circumstance that will redound to one candidate or another, usually orchestarted by one of the parties, will shift the election. Usually, though not always, the party in power has more ability to shape that surprise.

Do rebunkers think there will be an October Surprise? Karl Rove has hinted that there will be. And what will it mean?

I'll open the door, and say that the most logical October Surprise will be that Osama bin Laden is dead (or captured). The announcement will come somewhere around October 25th or after, long anough in advance of the election to have an impact, but not so far ahead that the impact can dissipate or that too much scrutiny can follow.

And by the way -- if this scenario is plausible, it raises a question: If he has been dead (or captured) for a long while, and if the administration is holding the information for electoral gain, what would that mean? I'd say impeachment should, but would not, follow. Foreign policy, the War on terror, ought not to be manipulated for electoral gain. There. That should get some verbs and adjectives flowing.

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Derek Charles Catsam - 10/13/2004

Ralph and Richard --
I'll take Frontpagemag at face value for the sake of the piece Richard posted. Plus, as a former fellow with FDD, I'll trust that this guy is doing legitimate work. The problem is not with the FDD fellow. It is with the writer of the article and the editors at frontpagemag.
Here's why: This is old wine in new skins. No one has denied that Saddam supported terrorists. We have known this for ages -- these documents thus simply give more evidence for something we could already demonstrate. To throw this out there as new news is disingenous. The question is the explicit link between Saddam and 9-11 which has not yet been proven. So the problem is not the story per se, it is that the story does not prove what they think it proves, the documents do not say what they think they say. Kerry is thus not backtracking because he has nothing about which to backtrack.
So in that sense, the Frontpagemag story is either merely disingenuous, the writer is colossally stupid, or it is an outright overt lie. For it to be disingenuous would be to say that it overstates its case -- which it clearly does. To say that it is stupid would be to say that the author cannot figure out either what the Kerry campaign has been arguing or what these documents in fact show. To be an outright lie would be to know these things but to assert otherwise. I'l let everyone else make their own decisions -- best case scenario, they are disingenuous. That is not much to stake a reputation on, that's for sure.
dc

Richard Henry Morgan - 10/13/2004

Truth? I never mentioned truth. I've experienced impossibility, so I'm a deconstructionist now. I've been relieved of the obligation of truth. It's just so vulgar.

Ralph E. Luker - 10/13/2004

FreeRepublic, NRO Online, the Washington Times, and, now, FrontPage. Really, Richard, your mission to bring truth from the Right into our benighted sphere is a noble one.

Richard Henry Morgan - 10/13/2004

http://www.frontpagemagazine.com/Articles/ReadArticle.asp?ID=15458

Derek Charles Catsam - 10/12/2004

Tom --
I think the suspicion is there because Karl Rove has already said overtly that there are October Surprises awaiting. If, suddenly, they find bin laden, Rove probably cooked his own goose. The Administration has taken to lying so much in the last few weeks of the campaign that it seems like a pathology. So i guess i am a bad American -- if out of nowehere bin laden shows up, I will be highly skeptical that it just now happened. the administration brought this upon themselves. Karl Rove in particular.
But I am not certain that a last minute discovery of bin Laden makes Bush's foreign policy a success, especially the almost incomprehensibly bad job he has done with every aspect of the war in Iraq. Bush would likely win, whih may actually be what he deserves, because after victory, one of these two candidates is atually going to have to rule, and I frankly am not all that optmistic.
dc

Tom Bruscino - 10/12/2004

Derek:

Can we add that foreign policy, the war on terror, ought not to be exploited too much for electoral gain? What if we legitimately kill or capture (or find evidence of the demise of) bin Laden in the next month? I know the immideiate response would be to cry foul, but is that the right answer? When was the cut off for the Bush administration to stop hunting bin Laden this election season? Would anyone believe that they had just got him and that it wasn't all planned?

I'm bothered by the accusations that would follow, whether there was any evidence or not. Let me be clear, if there was evidence that the administration held off capturing or killing bin Laden until now, I agree, that would be impeachable because a free bin Laden is a threat to the United States. If we already have him and are holding him, and the Bush administration is waiting until now to admit it, it seems like we could really bring up some kind of fraud charges against the president, and impeach him on that. But without the evidence, I think the president's critics ought to be very careful with the innuendo.

All of this brings up another question: What would the Kerry campaign do if we legitimately caught or killed OBL in the next few weeks? It probably wouldn't matter, but I think it would seriously hurt the country if Senator Kerry implied that it was all a sneaky plot by Mastermind Rove to get President Bush reelected. Considering the chances are overwhelming that we would get OBL in Afghanistan or Pakistan, wouldn't it suit Kerry to say that he was right? That Iraq really was a distraction? That we had wasted lives in a place where the main bad guy never was after 9/11? I don't necessarily agree with these things, I'm just throwing them out there.