Conquer and Not Divide
But there are considerable risks to this approach. If the Sunnis end up with no representatives, they will have even less incentive to support the new Iraqi order. Today a significant number of Sunnis feel disenfranchised, and thus they support the guerrillas (estimates vary from 25 percent to 65 percent). If they are cut out of the government, all will feel disenfranchised. And to have 20 percent of the country—people who are well trained and connected—supporting an insurgency makes it extremely difficult to defeat militarily.
American policy looks like the old Divide and Conquer but I am skeptical that there is an actual"policy" there. Or even that it is in the best imperial interest to have such a policy. The flare-up over Fallujah shows that there is no grand strategy coming out of the White House. Besides random proclamations on Freedom and evildoers.
Which is not to say that there aren't other interested parties on the ground in Iraq also pursuing the Divide and Conquer. Left unmentioned by Zakaria, are the Kurds. They are already peevedabout the CPA. They are angling for a lot more power and autonomy than they have been given. They also have the best trained militia/army in the region. There is reasonable intelligence that Israel is pursuing its own regional agenda by developing relations with the Kurds - to the great alarm of Turkey. Next up would be Iran and its interests in Iraq. Last, but not least, is whatever the post-invasion interests al-Qaeda has within the Sunni Triangle.
If any or all of these strategies spiral out of control, the balkanization of Iraq is a real and distinct policy. Now, according to the British Empire model, that would be swell. But, the US Imperial interests necessitate a unified Iraq above all. Anything else would be a disaster. Take whatever excuse you like for US invasion of Iraq, the domino-effect of a"model democracy", or regional military base or as a personal oil-pump for Dick Cheney, the fact remains that Iraq must survive as"Iraq" for any of those to succeed. Otherwise, we are looking at a Kurdistani-sized military base, a Shi'a theocracy and a no-man's-land.