Okay, I'll admit this: John Kerry surprised me last night in that his speech was filled with terrific rhetorical flourishes and was delivered with passion, something that this candidate usually lacks. I didn't even yawn once.

Michael Goodwin wrote that Kerry needed to say"eight words" in order to connect with the American people:"We must kill them [the terrorists] before they kill us." By saying that"we need to rebuild our alliances, so we can get the terrorists before they get us," Kerry seems to have delivered what Goodwin wanted. Add to this John Edwards' promise, the night before—"we will have one clear unmistakable message for Al Qaida and these terrorists: You cannot run. You cannot hide. We will destroy you"—and you've got a ticket that is pretty much in sync with the current administration. And with regard to Iraq, they may differ on some details, but they will stay the course.

They should get a bit of a bounce after this convention... as will the GOP ticket after its convention. And then the debates. Other things being equal, I still believe that Bush comes out on top on Election Day. But three months is an eternity in politics...