As we approach the U.S."hand-off" of power in Iraq to the Iraqi interim government I thought it might be useful to blog a bit more objectively about what probably will happen, rather then what we'd all like to see happen.

OK, we're not leaving anytime soon. Bush isn't leaving because he can't, and Kerry wouldn't leave because as much as the left wants him to be a peace candidate, no one wants the"instability" that mainstream analysts and foreign policy armchair quarterbacks predict would occur if we left. Those of us who believe we are making things worse off have to take this for granted.

So where does this leave us? Fareed Zakaria's piece in the TNR on line gives us what I suspect is the best we can realistically hope for. He argues, with some validity, that if we compare Iraq to Afghanistan it might be possible to see a brighter future for the country once we take a more multilateral approach to rebuilding the country. Clearly recent actions and statements by the Bush team lead one to believe that we're now heading down the multilateral path in Iraq.

What Zakaria fails to mention is the significant ethnic division in Iraq that is less problematic in Afghanistan. Iraq was a creation of the British, and like much of Africa it would not have existed if its citizens had been given the freedom to organize their society. As defenders of liberty, one possible"real world" alternative would be to promote a much more truly federal state in Iraq that would allow the different ethnic groups greater autonomy and an exit option. But rather then let this happen the foreign policy folks continue to think, too strictly, in short-term IR terms rather then long term reality. Even if the Turks don't want an independent Kurdish state we have to weigh that with a messy situation in Iraq that is simply untenable.

I for one remain unconvinced that forcing a country that probably should be three separate states to remain together is neither wise nor possible. We've allowed the former Yugoslavia to break up, and we've relented significantly in Africa on our once sacred policy of respecting national boundaries regardless of how those lines were drawn. If we were to take a more aggressive federal approach in Iraq I think it might help to defuse the current tension, but that may simply be the political scientist in me talking.