Beyond Red/Blue?
This list confirms some patterns from 2000--in competitive presidential contests, Illinois is now a safe Democratic state, West Virginia is a safe Republican one. But two interesting points: first, Kerry is sunk if he can't carry PA, just as Bush has little chance if he loses Ohio. Second, and more interesting, is the inclusion of VA and NC on the list. I had read several articles a couple of weeks ago that the Kerry campaign had decided to contest VA, but considered it spin--evidently not. And Democrats have been saying that the Research Triangle area would make NC competitive for two decades, but it looks as if the trade issue has done the trick this time.
That VA and NC are the two Southern states (besides Florida) that Kerry could carry suggests just how much the South has changed, even in the last four years. Between 1980 and 2000, the four best Southern states (excluding Florida) for the Democrats were Georgia, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Louisiana. In recent years, the Democratis parties of the first two states have wholly collapsed, and in Arkansas, Senator Blance Lincoln, who hasn't even endorsed Kerry yet, has said that if he came to the state, she wouldn't campaign with him. Ditto for Rep. Chris John, the Democratic frontrunner in Louisiana. For those of you whose libraries have access to it, this week's National Journal has an excellent article on Southern politics.
Two other interesting items from the Rasmussen poll. The first comes in the states not listed as toss-ups, especially Arizona and Colorado. Given the negative publicity on his signature issues of Iraq and terrorism over the last two months, it really does make you wonder what Bush would have to do to fall below 45% or so in polls. Second, the tightness of the race suggests that Charlie Cook's column in yesterday's L.A. Times is correct: even if his overall vote is much lower in 2004 than in 2000, Ralph Nader could again ensure a Bush victory.