Iraq, Manchuria and ... Liberia?
Following up on my comparison between Iraq and 1930s Manchuria, Joseph Askew, on H-Asia thinks the Philippines is a better analogy, and he makes some good points. It's been discussed on HNN before, by William Marina and William Loren Katz as well as in comments. I think Iraq's strategic resources, factions, and porous borders make Manchuria the more likely (and therefore more frightening) scenario, but I'm not sure that his is a comforting alternative. I might argue, if I'm allowed a little clarification, is that we are at a point where Iraq might be more like Manchuria or like the Philippines (or like post-WWII Japan, if you want to be absurdly optimistic) depending on what happens over the next year or two.
What's more interesting is his conclusion, where he points out that Japan's former colonial possessions are now all considered modern and healthy economies, whereas the equivalent US record is"gambling in Puerto Rico, money laundering in Panama, prostitution in the Philippines, all three in pre-Castro Cuba. And Liberia is just a basket case." This does not, he argues, bode well for Iraq. However, he fails to include US conquests, including long-term possessions like Texas and California, and short-term occupations like Japan and Germany, which weakens his case. He also paints other"English-speaking countr[ies]" with the same"bad steward" brush, (and does so from London, I might add, with an Australian return address) so we could debate the economic weal of the entire former British Empire, if you're so inclined.
UPDATE: I'm not the only one. Askew's argument is drawing some fire at H-Asia, from Thomas Bartlett (Manchuria was a coherent region and the colonial argument ignores historical background), Michael Jerryson (Japanese not just colonizers but also recipients of US occupation). Rico Azikate, who really knows Philippine history, thinks it's a good analogy, but complicates it considerably with inconvenient facts.