From Utah to West Virginia

2008 has the potential to be a realigning election (in either direction). Perhaps its most remarkable potential element, however, comes in the potential new electoral map associated with the Obama candidacy. Despite his status as the (slight) favorite to be elected President on the Democratic ticket four of Obama's six worst states in polling against John McCain are states that voted Democratic for President as recently as 1996: the Appalachian-extended arc of West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Arkansas. (Oklahoma and Wyoming are his other two very weak states.)

We’ve heard a lot in recent weeks about Obama’s weakness among blue-collar voters, or Reagan Democrats, or what Hillary Clinton dubbed “hard-working” whites. Yet in some ways, this description isn’t accurate: there’s no reason to believe, for instance, that Obama can’t appeal to the original Reagan Democrats (Macomb County, Michigan)--he easily carried this kind of demographic in Illinois. And he’s done quite well with non-college educated whites in the upper Midwest, Plains States, and Pacific Northwest.

Obama’s only crushing defeats have come in congressional districts dominated by Appalachian whites, where he’s generally received only about 30 percent of the vote in most such districts. The list includes the states above (except for Memphis and Nashville) as well as some areas in Mississippi, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and far western Virginia and North Carolina. (This Daily Kos map gives a sense of the breakdown).

It doesn’t take a genius to detect a mixture of racism and nativism playing a significant role in depressing Obama’s vote here, or here, or here, or here, or here. And with such sentiments appearing among Democratic voters, the idea that Obama could avoid a significant fall defeat in any of these states seems all but impossible.

Of course, Obama’s strengths in other areas compensate for his Appalachian weakness; he’s potentially stronger than any Democratic nominee since LBJ in the Plains States, the Rocky Mountain West, and the Pacific Northwest. Right now, Obama polls extraordinarily well in such traditionally Republican bastions as Alaska (only 5 points behind), North Dakota (less than 5 points down), Nebraska (ahead in two congressional districts, which would split the state’s electoral vote), and even Utah and Kansas (around 10 points down). He also could be competitive in North Carolina and Virginia.

So, as tonight’s West Virginia vote previews, an Obama victory in the fall could result in a new electoral alignment, in which Appalachia would emerge as the nation’s most solidly Republican territory, but the Plains and Rocky Mountain states would become far friendlier to the Democrats.