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May 9, 2008

The Clinton Dozen




Last night, New Jersey congressman Donald Payne, who represents Newark, withdrew his endorsement of Hillary Clinton and endorsed Barack Obama. Payne didn't mention the item in his announcement, but it's hard to overlook the timing: he moved less than 24 hours after the national press seized on Hillary Clinton's comments in West Virginia, where she suggested that an AP article had shown how"Sen. Obama's support among working, hard-working Americans, white Americans, is weakening again, and how whites in both states who had not completed college were supporting me . . . There's a pattern emerging here." (The article, needless to say, contained no equation of"white Americans" with"hard-working Americans.")

Clinton's statement, of course, was only the latest in the campaign's effort to play the race card. Slate's Timothy Noah recently did a fascinating post comparing a statement in West Virginia of Bill Clinton with remarks of George Wallace from the 1968 campaign. He asked readers to guess which statement came from Clinton and which from Wallace. As Noah concluded,"Harder than you expected, isn't it? Welcome to the final weeks of the Democratic primary campaign."

Payne's change of heart leaves Clinton with the support of only 12 African-American members of Congress: Maxine Waters, Lucille Roybal-Allard, Diane Watson, Alcee Hastings, Corinne Brown, Kendrick Meek, Emmanuel Cleaver, Charlie Rangel, Ed Towns, Yvette Clarke, Stephanie Tubbs Jones, and Sheila Jackson Lee.

A few of that list are at best half-hearted supporters: while Rangel backs Clinton, his wife endorsed Obama. And Cleaver has not only publicly predicted an Obama victory, but compared the Obama candidacy to the Indianapolis Colts, with Clinton representing the Kansas City Chiefs (one of the worst teams in the NFL last season).

On the other hand, several in the list above--notably Tubbs Jones and Jackson Lee, and Waters to a lesser extent--have been aggressive Clinton surrogates. The next time they denounce anyone else for racism, I'm sure their silence about the Clintons' tactics will be brought up. And, indeed, the fact that they had no problem going so strongly against the wishes of their constituents surely will weaken their long-term political positions at home.

It's no coincidence that the ranks of Clinton CBC supporters includes caucus' the most extreme practitioners of identity politics. One, perhaps salutary, effect of this campaign will come in discrediting the likes of Tubbs Jones and Jackson Lee.



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Ralph E. Luker - 5/12/2008

Nice stretch, Hopwood, but not convincing. Tomorrow, we'll add spelling lessons to the math. You'll need to get the teacher's name spelled correctly.


William Hopwood - 5/12/2008

Sorry, Mr. Lucas. I see I've gone over your head. I hope this simple explanation will clarify it for you:

Since only the percentages but not the total number of voters in each case are known, your own calculation (92% of X minus 83% of Y) is meaningless. What is known is that a higher percentage of black voters now support the black candidate than the percentage of Catholics who supported JFK in 1960. That difference was 9. If the percentages were to be the same, the percentage of Catholic voters supporting JFK in 1960 would have had to be increased by 11 percent (9 divided by 83) to equal 92 the percentage of black voters supporting Obama now. That comes to 10.84337. Round that to the nearest whole number which is 11. Get it now??


Ralph E. Luker - 5/12/2008

Brother Hopwood, Your logic is as solid as your mathematics. Last time I looked, 92% - 83% = 9%. Tomorrow, we start on the multiplication tables, single digits first.


William Hopwood - 5/12/2008

Of course the news hasn't been suppressed. My observation has been that the racial significance of such news has been largely ignored-- particularly vis-a-vis the charges of racism raised against the Clinton campaign, some, at least, without reasonable foundation.

"You think it a problem if Catholic voters voted overwhelmingly for John F. Kennedy?"

Apple and oranges. But even in that instance the percentage of Catholic vote for JFK was approx 11% less than the present percent of black vote for Obama, i.e, approx 83% Catholics for JFK vs approx 92% blacks for Obama. But that was the response of Catholics almost half a century ago, not to be repeated since.



Ralph E. Luker - 5/12/2008

I can't see that anyone has suppressed the news. It got to you, somehow; and you've had your opportunity to report it here. You think it a problem if Catholic voters voted overwhelmingly for John F. Kennedy?


William Hopwood - 5/11/2008

"...Undoubtedly, they would also see a problem if they voted overwhelmingly *against* Barack Obama ....or if they vote overwhelmingly against Hillary Clinton or... John McCain."

I see it differently. IF it is obvious that the principal reason for an overwhelming vote, either FOR or AGAINST a candidate, is that candidate's race, there is a problem. And that problem should be recognized for what it is, not buried under the rug of political correctness.

"One gets the sense that, unless they calibrate some acceptable "balance" of their votes for and against particular candidates, the issue is whether they should be allowed to vote at all."

Nonsense, as you surely know.

"Beyond that, of course, you are comparing grapes and watermelons. You object to claims about what a particular candidate says with claims about what a group of voters do."

You misread me. I called it unfair for Hillary to be charged with "playing the race card" for accurately citing a newspaper story, whereas any suggestion of racial motivation behind the more than 90% support of Obama by black voters is seldom seen. Comparatively speaking, the latter might more properly be labeled "playing the race deck"



Leo Casey - 5/11/2008

A few of that list are at best half-hearted supporters: while Rangel backs Clinton, his wife endorsed Obama.

This is an ill-informed theory that distorts the facts to fit its premises. Rangel fought like hell to have Clinton win in his home base of Harlem, which she did.


Ralph E. Luker - 5/11/2008

Dear Brother Hopwood, Two things: first, again I recommend sites like Free Republic to you. There, you'll find many like-minded folks who see a problem in the fact that African American voters have been voting overwhelmingly for Barack Obama. Undoubtedly, they would also see a problem if they voted overwhelmingly *against* Barack Obama or if they vote overwhelmingly against Hillary Clinton or if they vote overwhelmingly against John McCain. One gets the sense that, unless they calibrate some acceptable "balance" of their votes for and against particular candidates, the issue is whether they should be allowed to vote at all.
Beyond that, of course, you are comparing grapes and watermelons. You object to claims about what a particular candidate says with claims about what a group of voters do.


William Hopwood - 5/10/2008

"...Hillary Clinton's...comments in West Virginia, where she suggested that an AP article had shown how "Sen. Obama's support among working, hard-working Americans, white Americans, is weakening again...Clinton's statement, of course, was only the latest in the campaign's effort to play the race card..."

It seems unfair that Hillary is being condemned as a racist for merely calling attention to what was reported as fact by the AP in an exit poll (which could be the one excerpted below).

Curiously, on the other hand, there seems little comment with regard to any possible racial motivation behind the extent of Obama support by 90 percent of black voters. Why the double standard?

"WASHINGTON (AP) — Race again played a pivotal role in Tuesday's Democratic presidential clashes, as whites in Indiana and North Carolina leaned solidly toward Hillary Rodham Clinton and blacks voted overwhelmingly for Barack Obama, exit polls showed....Obama...again failed to gain ground with a crucial voting bloc that has consistently eluded him — working-class whites.
According to exit polls of voters, about two-thirds of whites in both states who have not completed college were supporting Clinton. The New York senator could use that to fortify her argument that she would be the stronger Democratic candidate in the November general election. ...Nine in 10 blacks in both states were backing Obama — an even stronger margin than usual for a group he has dominated.....The results were from exit polling by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International for The Associated Press and television networks.."