Nov 12, 2007
Shifting Baselines
So apparently the war in Iraq is over, and that country is at peace. Violence has dropped off sharply...in the last three months. American commanders say the drop-off means that Iraqis are renouncing violence and realizing that they've"had enough."
No. This is not hard. Start with the AP story I linked to above:"Associated Press figures show a sharp drop in the number of U.S. and Iraqi deaths across the country in the past few months. The number of Iraqis who met violent deaths dropped from at least 1,023 in September to at least 905 in October, according to an AP count."
Then go to the Iraq Index page at the Brookings website and look at a few reports from prior years.
No. This is not hard. Start with the AP story I linked to above:"Associated Press figures show a sharp drop in the number of U.S. and Iraqi deaths across the country in the past few months. The number of Iraqis who met violent deaths dropped from at least 1,023 in September to at least 905 in October, according to an AP count."
Then go to the Iraq Index page at the Brookings website and look at a few reports from prior years.
Look at the chart of violent deaths among Iraqis on page 7 of this report from December of 2004, for example, and pay close attention to the number for October. Then compare it to the"at least 905" for this October.
Here's the index to reports from other months -- look around for yourself. Compare October 2005 or October 2006 to October 2007. And look for patterns: Has violence fallen and then resumed, before, or is the current decline in violence the first we've ever seen?
In the coming weeks, look closely at the many stories announcing the"decline of violence in recent months" in Iraq. How many will place the trend in a longer context?