Oct 1, 2007
The Vagaries of Electoral Systems
A general election for the Ukranian parliament was held on Sunday. This is the story so far. Exit polls suggested that prime minister Viktor Yanukovych’s party took 35.5% of the vote, with Yulia Tymoshenko's bloc second on 31.5%, and Viktor Yushchenko, the president, third with just 13.5%. It seems that Tymoshenko and Yushchenko together are likely to secure a wafer-thin majority in the 450-seat parliament but Yanukovych has refused to yield ground. Mr Yanukovych could attempt to form a coalition with his allies in the Communist Party of Ukraine, which won 5.1% of votes, and with ex-parliament speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn's party, which won 3.7%, according to exit polls.
It struck me that these numbers were really rather similar to the distribution of votes at the most recent British general election in 2005. The Labour party under Tony Blair received 35.3% of the vote, the Conservatives received 32.3% of the vote, the Liberal Democrats got 22.1% of the vote, and all others 10.3%. The outcome, however, was quite different. The British system of first-past-the-post (the winning candidate in any constituency, or district, has to win merely a plurality of the vote) meant that Labour won an absolute majority of 66 in Parliament and formed the next government.
Will Tymoshenko and Yushchenko form the next government? Certainly it seems so under the Ukrainian electoral system. But under the British system, it is quite possible that Yanukovych would have won. Such are the vagaries of electoral systems.
It struck me that these numbers were really rather similar to the distribution of votes at the most recent British general election in 2005. The Labour party under Tony Blair received 35.3% of the vote, the Conservatives received 32.3% of the vote, the Liberal Democrats got 22.1% of the vote, and all others 10.3%. The outcome, however, was quite different. The British system of first-past-the-post (the winning candidate in any constituency, or district, has to win merely a plurality of the vote) meant that Labour won an absolute majority of 66 in Parliament and formed the next government.
Will Tymoshenko and Yushchenko form the next government? Certainly it seems so under the Ukrainian electoral system. But under the British system, it is quite possible that Yanukovych would have won. Such are the vagaries of electoral systems.