The Non-Issue Issue that Won't Die
Second, even if we relax that assumption it's bizarre how afraid conservatives are of letting states make these choices for them. I actually agree that courts should not be creating these rights out of thin air like Thomas Sowell's column in the"Moonie" Times. But clearly if a state wants to pass a law legalizing it that's federalism folks.
Third, I think we need put this all in an international perspective. For those of us who complain about the decline of freedom in the U.S., it's important to remember that these debates just can't happen in some countries, a fact that Christopher Hitchens reminds us of in this sort of mushy but otherwise good column from yesterday's Opinion Journal.
Finally, let's assume that the Constitutional amendment on gay marriage fails, which seems like a safe bet. What states are most likely to move towards legalizing civil unions? I'd spectulate it's those with the most to gain from even a small scale gay migration from nearby states, like Oregon, Wisconsin, and of course the only state with a truly legal union Vermont. It's a sort of interesting variation on welfare politics in my mind.