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Since so many dead enders are using this site as their personal soap box to attack science, I figured I’d offer a small post on ecology and classical liberalism. The issue is filled with paradoxes.
The theory of spontaneous order first developed in the Scottish Enlightenment, especially by Adam, Smith, is the only theory rooted in the social sciences that has enriched the natural sciences. It provides the fundamental logic behind both ecological science and the theory of evolution - that order can arise “spontaneously” from independent actions channeled through impersonal systems of negative and positive feedback. Feedback in the market is via the price system. Feedback in nature is through successful or unsuccessful reproduction. In the human world ideas reproduce, develop or die. In nature organisms reproduce, develop or die. This isomorphic similarity is also the key to identifying the problems in harmonizing these orders.
There is a fundamental disconnect between feedback in human society and in the natural world because ideas reproduce, develop, or die at a much faster rate than human generations. Therefore human society changes much more quickly than the human genome. In the case of the market, human time preferences as reflected in the rate of interest gives the temporal reference for purely economic activity. Organisms that reproduce and adapt very rapidly can ‘keep up’ with human society – bacteria being the most successful. Slower natural processes are often at a serious adaptive disadvantage.
Now factor in the issue of scale. The human world has recently begun creating waste products that do not recycle easily into the biological community or deposit themselves harmlessly into the natural world (for example, as pottery shards did for thousands of years). When the scale of this waste production was small, it was not an issue. But as the scale has increased the potential for problems has grown accordingly. Global warming issue are one of several such cases.
Both biological processes and ideas liberate power and creativity. In the short run ideas liberate much more power and energy, in the long run biological processes provide the essential foundation for society to give ideas such power. We are dominant in the short run – nature in the long run. Hence over the long run it is vital that ideas not inadvertently undermine the biological support for their societies. Some societies succeed at this, some fail. Julian Simon was not always right – as the Anasazi and early civilizations of the Tigris and Euphrates could confirm.
Much of what is best about markets arises from their systemic characteristics – impersonal coordinating properties – rather than from a simple individualistic model of free exchange. This point is hardly denied by methodological individualism, but for less sophisticated interpretations of it this point is obscured. Individual exchanges generate the market system which then loops back to transform the context of further exchanges, and so on indefinitely. Markets would arise under any system of voluntary instrumental or partially instrumental exchange. At their most abstract level they are as impersonal as an ecology or evolution.
Harmonizing society and nature must occur in part at an equally impersonal level. Eliminating waste is the basic requirement, which means eliminating the capacity of people to leave significant negative externalities in their wake. Major negative externalities created by individuals are easy. Very small ones created by individuals that add up because there are many individuals are much more difficult to deal with. The language of property rights can easily encompass the problem – but institutions to make property right enforcement practical in this latter case are more difficult.
To give what I hope is a completely noncontroversial example, Missoula, Montana long had homes heated by wood stoves and fireplaces. But the city is located in a valley subject to winter temperature inversions. When Missoula was small this was not an issue. As it grew winter smoke trapped by the inversions made the air increasingly unpleasant to all and hazardous to some. Finally wood stoves and fireplaces were banned in new housing. Only an idiot would say this was unjust.
The logic underlying global warming is akin to this issue, but on a global scale. The same is true for other nonpoint pollution problems.
It seems to me most libertarians and other classical liberals are wedded to thinking of everything in terms of a state vs. market dichotomy, and so are reduced to denying these kinds of problems are significant because traditional market models are unable to deal very well with them. But institutions rooted in civil society may be able to address a great many of these issues (see Peter Barnes’ wonderful Capitalism 3.0 – start in the positive second part so you don’t get defensive with his critique of corporations in the first part). And for anyone who sees government as legitimately enforcing property rights, using its power to reduce negative externalities that cannot be reduced through traditional means of tort and injunction seems to me no theoretical obstacle at all. The practical issues are interesting – but can be creatively addressed only once someone is able to acknowledge a problem exists.
The irrational deniers of the growing judgment of the scientific community are reduced to alliances with fundamentalist lunatics like Sen. Inhofe because if they take the judgment of most scientists seriously they will have to rethink their fondly held beliefs. Like the Pope and Jupiter’s moons – theory trumps evidence no matter how otherwise persuasive that evidence may be. This attitude constitutes the greatest threat to the long term viability of many classical liberal insights in understanding the world. Ironically, they have chosen an evolutionary dead end rather than being open to new adaptation. It is a great pity because insights rooted in classical liberalism are desperately needed today.
I don't know how to start a new thread so please be my guest.
Tim Sydney -
5/14/2007
I agree with Otto but the public use of the term is at odds with our normal use of the term "skeptic".
A "true skeptic" would put both the claims of AGW nay-sayers and AGW yay-sayers under a hot lens.
Otto M. Kerner -
5/13/2007
I'm an agnostic myself. However, I think the conventional view among the public is that AGW has been so thoroughly proven that if you are not totally convinced of its truth, you must be a skeptic.
Gus diZerega -
5/13/2007
Tim - can you start a new thread with this comment? If not, I'll hijack it and do so - this raises lots of interesting issues. Wonderful piece.
gus
Tim Sydney -
5/13/2007
Another linkage between 'classical liberalism' and ecology is provides by Robert Nisbet.
Although he avoided the 'classical liberal' label, Robert Nisbet was probably the doyen of conservative sociology and his definition of conservatism, definitely Burkean, was decidedly hostile to militarism and the emerging neocon and Christian Right agendas.
Nisbet's sociology was definitely anti-statist but not anarchist. He sought a new community based on "a new laissez faire", one that would revive a network of intermediate institutions and communities between the individual and the central state, the only recipe he believed that worked against centraism. His new laissez faire was not a reversion to 19th century style laisser faire. With these qualifications in mind, I still think "classical liberals" are right to think of him as "one of their own."
Anyhow in his book "The Social Philosophers" (1974), a survey of historically influential social thinkers, he defined six broad classes of community, and grouped the various social thinkers into this scheme. The half dozen types were the military community , the political community, the religious community, the revolutionary community, the plural community and the ecological community.
The last he defined as "the close, cohesive interdependences symbolised by the small household economy, the interdependences among organisms and between organisms and the environment which are natural, in contrast to those which are contrived or artificial; and the profound sense of a web of life existing between man and the rest of nature that man endangers only at his own peril."
Into this class of thinkers Nisbet placed Saint Benedict of Nursia, Sir Thomas ("utopia") Moore, Proudhon, Kropotkin, the French Physiocrats and Adam Smith.
Perhaps paralleling Nisbet's thinking here, John C. Medaille has called Adam Smith, "The Forgotten Agrarian" (see his PDF here).
Medaille quotes "Wealth Of Nations" in his article lead: "“[The Agricultural System]… is, perhaps, the nearest approximation to the truth that has yet been published upon the subject of political oeconomy, and is upon that account well worth the
consideration of every man who wishes to examine with attention the principles of that very
important science.”
So there is a definite "ecological" / "agrarian" thread in classical liberalism. Some of the American 20th century agrarians like, for example, Louis Bromfield (see Joseph Stromberg's summary here) combined a concern for the soil, free trade, anti-militarism and conservationism. They were "green" back when greens were something you ate and predated the more socialistic oriented greens of today.
The distributists, whose leading thinkers had roots in the anti-imperialist wing of the UK Liberal Party early in the 20th century, paralleled many of the concerns of the agrarians. Distributist Hillaire Belloc'a "The Servile State" was in many ways a forerunner to F.A. Hayek's "The Road to Serfdom".
In recent years E.F. Schumacher, the 1970s pioneer of "small is beautiful" and "alternative technology" has himself migrated "right-wards" to be closer to the Distributists. (See article here).
This survey shows that historically there have been movements and tendencies close to, sometimes parallel to, sometimes overlapping with, classical liberalism that have not only adapted to an ecological viewpoint, but have helped develop it. So the task of greening classical liberalism may not be quite as counter-intuitive as many both inside and outside the classical liberal movement think.
Tim Sydney -
5/11/2007
I think the "AGW skepticism" (if skeptic is the right word) of the free market community is primarily a reaction to the false alarms of earlier eco-catastrophists.
It also reflects a justified skepticism against the usual set of public policy measures proposed to supposedly stop or reduce AGW.
Logically speaking neither of these (wholly understandable) sources of skepticism actually come to terms with the real scientific issue.
If quack doctors tell me crystals will cure cancer I have every reason to doubt their prescription. But the diagnosis is another story. Especially when the diagnosis is delivered by those qualified to do so. There is no reason to throw the scientifically sound diagnosis baby out with the quack medicine prescription bathwater.
I'm impressed by the position of Sir John Maddox. He was for decades the cheif editor of "Nature", perhaps the most prestigous scientific journal of the lot. So he is a career specialist in evaluating diverse scientific claims from diverse disciplines. He cannot by any stretch of the imagination be considered an ecological alarmist either. He wrote "The Doomsday Syndrome", one of the first and still one of the best critiques of the eco-alarmist position. Based on his assessment of the science, he argues that the onus is now upon the AGW skeptics to prove their case rather than on the AGW supporters.
So this seems like a scientifically sound diagnosis to me. We don't have to buy into the statist public policy recommendation many scientists (working outside of their credentials) and most environmentalists prescribe.
To complicate matters, from a global point of view, betting on AGW solutions (whatever they may happen to be), although presumably expensive, is at least a relatively 'easy' policy track to reverse course on should it be found that AGW skeptics were right all along. AGW skepticism however is a policy track that is not so easy to reverse course on. You can be "prudent" without committing completely to the "precautionary principle".
I mightn't be 100% convinced that the doctors have given me the right diagnosis but if they say lose weight or die, I'm happy to diet whilst waiting for a better diagnosis to come in.
Tim Sydney -
5/11/2007
The usual framing of the debate over Anthropic Global Warming (AGW) is to posit "AGW Skeptics" versus "AGW Believers". Still there are plenty of us who side with neither group. It would seem to me that, as in religious debates, it is the "AGW agnostics" who are the "true skeptics".
Gus diZerega -
5/9/2007
I just had the pleasure of (admittedly quickly) reading Ed Dolan's piece from the CATO Journal. It is very good. A breath of fresh air.
As an aside- those open to Dolan's arguments would be particularly interested in Peter Barnes' argument in Capitalism 3.0 for how a trust could handle this issue within the context of property rights and cooperation.
Gus diZerega -
5/9/2007
well said.
Tim Sydney -
5/9/2007
Most of the free market oriented community seems to line up on the Anthropic Global Warming (AGW) skeptic side of the debate. This has very little to do with the AGW debate itself and more to do with how environmental and global catastrophist arguments have been used in the past.
For example the "Club Of Rome" and the "Limits To Growth" computer models of the 1970s which predicted global disaster in the 1990s. The failure of alarmist predictions in the past has coloured the viewpoint of the free marketeers.
This is understandable. For example if George W Bush appeared on TV tomorrow with "proof" that Syria or Iran had WMDs pointed at the US, the value of his argument would be discounted based on his previous track record.
This is the old tale of "the boy who cried wolf" revisited. Still many of us familiar with the tale forget the ending. The boy ultimately was eaten by a wolf.
Could it be that free market AGW skeptics have been lulled by previous alarmist false alarms to ignoring the real deal? If so the response would be a massive fall in their stocks, a similar fate to the one now being justly served on the pro-war neocons.
Luckily not all free marketeers have been lulled to sleep by the sound of false alarms. Edwin Dolan, an Austrian school economist, who dealt with these issue back in the 1970s, in his book "TANSTAAFL: The Economic Strategy for Environmental Crisis" has published a 20 plus page report, on-line as a PDF document here, discussing some "market liberal" responses to AGW.
I'm an AGW agnostic myself, neither a skeptic or a believer, but it would seem to me that most of the free market community is heavily, too heavily, invested in the AGW skeptic camp. And there is prima facie no strong reason for this. The earth's atmosphere has been "run" as an essentially unmanaged commons. Free market economists have long warned of the perils of the tragedy of the commons. Isn't AGW just another example of that? In all probability the response to this tragedy of the commons will be a round robin series of negotiated multinational intergovernmental interventions. Free marketeers are in a better position than anyone to explain why such a solution is highly unlikely to work. But to oppose a bad solution you need a good alternate solution, not just a denial of the original problem.
Gus diZerega -
5/9/2007
In don't have the time to discuss anarcho capitalism right now. This takes me too far afield at a time when I'm busy grading finals and preparing to move. Besides I've discussed it at length here before.
Suffice it to say I no longer find it a credible position in the world we live in.
William J. Stepp -
5/8/2007
The corporate form of business is perfectly compatible with laissez faire. Taxes, which all C corporations pay at the corporate level, are not consistent with laissez faire.
(S corporations and LLCs are taxed differently, at the shareholder level.)
Corporate activities that supply goods and services demanded by consumers are perfectly consistent with a free market.
Of course corporations do things that are statist and that injure consumers, such as giving backhanders to pols to vote for tariffs, intellectual "property," and other restrictions on competition.
If (some) corporations try to undermine laissez faire, the solution to this problem is to get rid of the state. If there is no state to serve as a middleman or end player in the rent extraction process, then no rents will be extracted, and consumers will benefit from the healthier competitive environment.
To the extent that some corporations use their balance sheets to buy protection, the solution is to get rid of the agent supplying the protection--the State. They couldn't buy protectionist measures in the market.
Gus diZerega -
5/8/2007
Fine Sheldon - but in a less than anarchistic world, if my arguemnts replying to William Stepp are well taken, corporations will tend to work to undermine laissez faire. The bigger and more successful they are as companies the greater the likelihood they will undermine it - just as the weakening of protections against abuses of eminent domain have led smaller businesses to use local government to get privileges for themselves at the expense of others.
It seems to me this is one of the theoretiocal dilemmas of a hard core libertarian position - that the organizations that are most successful in the market will in time use their wealth to try and gain protection from the market as their position is threatened by new organizations. In addition, they will use the government to "open trade" with others by overriding local differences in favor of one-size-fits-all approaches to anytrhing affecting trade.
There are an incredible number of examples of both.
Sheldon Richman -
5/8/2007
I don't see anarchism as relevant to this discussion. My only point is that we should not mistake today's corporations for corporations in an ideal laissez-faire economy
Gus diZerega -
5/8/2007
Given limited liability as a kind of privilege to enable people to pool resources more safely, I'm not sure what a laissez faire (anarcho-capitalist?) corporation would look like. It would probably be smaller. But the answer isn't really vital for present purposes.
Even a hypothetical laissez faire corporation that apportioned voting rights according to investments would still be biased towards a narrower set of values than normal human beings.
The rest of the issue depends on the theoretical and practical case for anarcho capitalism, a position I once held but do no more.
Sheldon Richman -
5/8/2007
Whatever one thinks of the corporation per se, it is an egregious error to regard the corporations that exist today as though they were creations of laissez faire. In fact they are creations of the cartelized corporatist state. Thus their behavior is not pristine consumer-oriented market behavior. This error is what Kevin Carson calls vulgar libertarianism.
Gus diZerega -
5/8/2007
Max-
Even Michael Crichton agrees global warming is going on - and you admitted as much yourself after first apparently denying it when you said the temperature rises that have happened of late are in the lower end of those predicted by the IPCC. (No mention of the faster than predicted melting of arctic ice...)
The debate is over what the medium to long term implications are - not whether it is happening.
Disparaging references to "somewhat hysterical” scientists may make an impression with Rush Limbaugh - but not with anyone who actually knows scientists. You apparently believe anyone with a MD can evaluate atmospheric science because statistics simply speak for themselves or something. All the time spent in specialization and in mastering the literature of a field is just so much waste. Once you've done research on Egyptian craniums, well, the working of perhaps the most complex earthly phenomena ever studied, the atmosphere, is a piece of cake.
Yes, the basic principle that CO2 is a greenhouse gas is well known – and supports the global warming hypothesis. But the earth’s atmosphere and climate are filled with complex feedback effects that can go in both directions – and in some cases there are no historical examples from which to learn. Lindzen for example argues warmer temperatures increase evaporation which increases cloud cover which increases the reflection of light and heat away from the earth. No one doubts his basic point either. But HOW MUCH? Some recent research seems not to support his contention that it will do enough. That is the rub. The principles involved are often intuitively plausible – but how do they interact with other plausible processes that work in the opposite direction? For example. as permafrost melts, (and it is, rapidly) methane gas is released from rotting peat and vegetation up till now kept in the deep freeze. Methane is an even stronger greenhouse gas than CO2. HOW MUCH impact will this have? Again, so far as I know, no one knows.
Historically the earth’s climate shows the capacity to make very rapid and substantial shifts in very short periods of time. A matter of a few years. What does it take to trigger another shift? Almost certainly any significant shift will be catastrophic for many – but will it happen and what will it look like - that is somewhat akin to predicting the market.
As to statistics alone – they cannot really answer the question. This should be easy to see for libertarians if they know anything about Austrian economic theory. Von Mises was a major critic of the German Historical School’s collection of economic statistics to find laws in the economy. Markets are complex nonlinear adaptive systems with feedback going in both directions as well. The atmosphere seems to be similar in this respect (though obviously not in all respects).
And why do you write at one point that most any competent statistician can judge evidence over global warming and then tell us that we should figure out how better to protect whales rather than pursuing something "out of our reach" by researching global warming?
I do agree that the prize money offered for taking CO2 out of the atmosphere is a brilliant move. But why do you if the issue is "out of our reach"?
Max Schwing -
5/7/2007
Well, first of all, as a medically trained person, Mr. Crichton knows something about statistics and about correlation of variables in those statistics.
However, it is often not the physics of climate change that is attacked by opponents of man-influenced climate change (there is no such thing as "global warming" - it is more a regional change in climate), but rather the models. Those models are statistical interpretations of physical laws and they are made to fit a certain trend-line (historical temperatures). Most natural scientists I know don't have a special education in statistics either! Engineers don't dwell deep into statistics, too, due to the obvious fact, that the few statistical tools (linear regression, root mean square deviation or gaussian distribution) are well understood and easily applicable (if possible).
However, you don't need to be a mathematical genius to understand the concepts behind the Greenhouse effect. The problem is the application of laboratory physical results to the complex system of earth climate, which I still find sloppy.
The problem is that even scientists are somewhat hysterical about the whole issue and easily bed themselves with politicians (on both sides), which doesn't help the climate in the climate science community.
I have yet to see a convincing argument that men and earth are on the brink of destruction, because the last few years, we were always on the lower edge of IPCC temperature projections. They somewhat overestimate the whole effect.
Instead of pumping millions into climate research, we could have done something more insteresting, like solving the problem with no property rights whale hunting... That'd be far more crucial then contemplating something out of our reach.
I think the most constructive idea up-to-date, was the prize money for developing a plan to isolate and remove CO2 from the athmosphere. This would be a constructive solution to a perceived problem, which I'd prefer over all those mumbo-jumbo of back to nature and we must stifle economic growth.
Gus diZerega -
5/7/2007
Michael Crichton is not an atmospheric scientist, which pretty obviously is what I was referring to. His academic training is in anthropology and medicine. Here is a quotation taken from what appears to be his official website:
"Crichton's interest in computer modeling goes back forty years. His multiple-discriminant analysis of Egyptian crania, carried out on an IBM 7090 computer at Harvard, was published in the Papers of the Peabody Museum in 1966. His technical publications include a study of host factors in pituitary chromophobe adenoma, in Metabolism, and an essay on medical obfuscation in the New England Journal of Medicine." http://www.crichton-official.com/aboutmc/biography.html
He is as qualified to evaluate global warming science as I am.
And my argument is based on the contention that I am not qualified to evaluate the technical scientific disputes about cloud albedo and the like that takes place in the field.
Anthony Gregory -
5/7/2007
Yes, Michael Crichton is a scientist.
Gus diZerega -
5/7/2007
I did not dispute it because Al Gore is not my reason for taking global warming seriously even if he contributes to your reason for not taking it seriously. I take science seriously, you apparently take ideology equally seriously.
I have written over and over and over again that it is the judgment of the scientific community that motivates me. Gore is as much a part of that community as you are or I am - not at all. He is a very effective popularizer - as for example Huxley was for Darwin. But as I observed, you guys never confront my argument.
Is Michael Crichton a scientist? He is the most well known debunker - he's even Commander Codpiece's personal advisor on the issue. You dead enders are very good at casting up one red herring after another to avoid dealing with the core issues. But I won't play along.
Keith Halderman -
5/7/2007
While your criticism of Lindzen's use of Al Gore's mentor may or may not be valid, I would like to here his justification for it before deciding, I notice you do not dispute the main point of his essay that the effects of global warming are highly exaggerated. And really, how can you when Al Gore has said "I believe it is appropriate to have an overrepresentation of factual presentations on how dangerous it is, as a predicate for opening up the audience." Also, if science is so free from political interference why is it that a politician is the leading spokesman on this issue?
Gus diZerega -
5/6/2007
I've never attacked corporations across the board. Never. I have argued that:
1. They are biased organizationally to respond to a far narrower set of values than individuals. This is why voting power reflects money invested and not individual equality. How much this is a problem or advantage depends on context.
2. They have historically been major factors in seeking wide spread standardization by government in order to create a uniform business environment across as large a space as possible. When libertarians were more open to left perspectives in the 60s this was readily acknowledged.
3. Some have been major recipients of speciic political favors at the expense of the rest of us.
4. The logic of a teleological organization/order is always to some degree in tension with the logic of the spontaneous order within which it exists.
None of these points amount to rejecting corporations as bad.
Perhaps we are actually approaching agreement on something. Maybe. From my perspective proposals to shift incentives to internalize externalities does not constitute top down intervention. Top down intervention is when government picks a technology to solve a problem - such as subsidizing ethanol (mostly to assist corporate agriculture).
My perspective, shard by far more environmentalists than Exxon would have you believe, is that once some means exists to internalize the impact of carbon production on the producers, in good Julian Simon terms, alternatives will be developed.
William J. Stepp -
5/6/2007
Yes, waste products that don't easily recycle have been introduced comparatively recently. Now some companies are recycling these waste materials in ingenious ways and making a profit doing so, as an article in Business Week recently pointed out.
Firms such as Waste Management, GE, etc. are investing more and more capital in these efforts. The business press is filled with these stories.
I don't think libertarians deny the reality of pollution and waste. But we are certainly skeptical that a statist top-down approach involving global NGOs and official commissions can solve the problem, especially considering that these institutions often attack the market and rely on taxes for their funding.
(I wonder what Wolfie's girlfriend is doing that is worth $193k per? If she were doing the same thing in the private sector--assuming it's a productive activity, which it probably isn't--she'd be making a fraction of that.)
Markets and free exchange must play an important role in solving the problem of pollution and waste. Without them they won't be solved.
Attacking corporations per se is irrational and counterproductive.
It involves a type of Taliban-like antimarket fundamentalism that would have far worse consequences than the alleged denial of the problem by libertarians.
Gus diZerega -
5/6/2007
Mark- I have read many claims here that scientists' judgments are simply 'political.' Or that the scientist du jour who opposes global warming is to be preferred over those who disagree. Or cherry-picked claims about Mars. Or that (some) of the media is "unfair."
NONE have addressed my point about the different standards of argument rational lay people and scientists must employ on this issue. If I am wrong in this argument they should give me an rational argument, not just ignore my point by bringing in yet another scientist who disagrees with the by now big majority view.
I think "dead enders" is a valid characterization for those with this approach - they seem to me to be impervious to argument. But if the term seems too harsh, how about people who cherry pick examples from fields they are not experts in so as to support their ideological predilections?
For a final example, witness the evidence I gave that Richard Lindzen's use of Roger Revelle to bolster his case was irrelevant if truthful because way out of date, and almost certainly not truthful according to Revelle's own family. The poster apparently chose to use Lindzen's claim to make a point against global warming without knowing much about it beyond its being convenient ideological ammunition.
To be a good framework for learning about a world more complex than our understanding an ideology needs to be open to rethinking its positions when evidence arises that something more is needed. RETHINKING DOES NOT MEAN TOSSING OUT. My post above attempts to show that NOTHING utterly central to either markets or the core insights of classical liberalism is at stake in the global warming debate - and that there is something sad about those who argue otherwise. Perhaps at the core, they understand neither the logic of markets or the principles of liberalism?
I assure you I would deeply prefer there was no global warming, or that if there were it was obviously not human caused. There is no pay off for me at any level that this seems not to be the case. I gain no pleasure from it.
On another topic-
I am glad Shop-a-thonic has been kicked off the list. Even though I agreed with some of his/her basic points, he/she was incredibly abusive. I hope all future participants will be required to give their real names so as to take personal responsibility for their words. I suspect this person would have written differently if required to give an accurate name.
Mark Brady -
5/6/2007
"Since so many dead enders are using this site as their personal soap box to attack science,..."
That's a flip remark which may score a point or two with Shop a Thon, whose posts have since been deleted, but it really does you and your arguments no credit. You may believe that some commentators are mistaken but I don't remember reading anyone who was setting out to "attack science" whatever that might mean.