Nagin Wins

In a racially polairzed runoff, by a 52-48 margin, Ray Nagin has been re-elected mayor of New Orleans. I'm not sure anyone could do the job: Nagin certainly has given little indication that he's up to the task, and in some respects his victory could be interpreted as heartening to incompetent politicians everywhere.

The figures have to be alarming for Louisiana Democrats. Before Katrina, 2/3 of New Orleans was black. Now, at least in terms of voters, that percentage has dropped to roughly 50%. Louisiana is one of three Southern states (along with Florida and Arkansas) in which national Democrats have a chance; these are the only three of the South's 11 states to send any Democrats to the Senate. Yet the Democratic margin in Louisiana has been perilously thin: Senator Mary Landrieu has twice won election with less than 52 percent of the vote; Governor Kathleen Blanco likewise failed to clear 52 percent in her 2003 triumph. So with any diminution of the number of African-American voters in New Orleans--can the refugees resettled in Atlanta, Dallas, or New Orleans really be expected to return?--this state moves from marginal to pretty strong GOP territory. Since Nagin's 52% percent suggests that the black vote total has dropped, Landrieu might have real problems in 2008.