May 2, 2006

Durham Poll

by Cliopatria

The ABC affiliate in Raleigh has just released a poll showing a dead heat in the race for Durham district attorney, with Mike Nifong trailing challenger Freda Black by one point, 39-38. Nifong leads among blacks and liberals; Black leads among whites and conservatives; tomorrow is Election Day. The third candidate, African-American defense attorney Keith Bishop, has only 11 percent, presumably siphoning votes away from Nifong. North Carolina has no runoff if the winning candidate receives 40 percent of the vote; given these polling figures, a runoff seems unlikely.

Obviously tomorrow's result will influence the next step in the Duke case. A Nifong defeat might provide the excuse for the state's attorney general to intervene and take over the case, as is allowed under North Carolina law when a prosecutor is compromised. (This morning, defense attorney Kirk Osborn filed a motion to remove Nifong from the case, claiming a violation of the state bar's ethics provisions.) Presumably, the AG could determine whether Nifong has any evidence against the accused that would survive legal challenge; and, if so, move ahead and prosecute the case competently, while, if not, drop the charges. Given the closeness of the ABC poll and the recent signs that Duke's student body, if not its faculty, have grown concerned with the DA's erratic behavior, a heavy turnout from Duke's students could play a major factor in the outcome.

Update, 5.57pm: The motion of Reade Seligmann's attorney is now publicly available. Although it's obviously the statement of an advocate, this is considerably more than a defense leak, and the amount of exculpatory evidence presented--that Nifong, according to Seligmann's attorney, refused even to consider before indictment--does not reflect well on how this case has been investigated. CNN also has a photo of Seligmann at at ATM machine at the time the rape was allegedly committed.

More Comments:

Robert KC Johnson - 5/1/2006

Yes, even if Nifong loses, he retains office until January 1. In a piece out in the News and Observer a few days ago, he said he wouldn't resign if he lost and strongly implied he would become more aggressive in handling the case if he loses--which I suspect would increase the pressure on the AG to intervene.

Ralph E. Luker - 5/1/2006

I think we're talking about a Democratic Party primary here (there being no Republican candidates for the office), so even if Nifong loses the primary or run-off he may hold the office as a lame duck longer than you thought. I suspect that two of these three candidates are headed to a run-off. Nifong holding the office as a lame duck might well encourage the state's attorney general to intercede.

Robert KC Johnson - 5/1/2006

I was wondering about that as well. He seems to be a very widely respected figure--and from everything I've read about him in the campaign, he's come across as by far the most appealing of the three candidates.

A runoff would the worst imaginable outcome, since it's hard to see how it couldn't become racially polarizing.

Ralph E. Luker - 5/1/2006

My guess is that the 11% showing for Bishop is misleading. He has the endorsement of the very influential Durham Committee on Negro Affairs (DCNA) and I suspect that he will get more than the 11% of the vote.