Oct 21, 2005
Political Bloodshed in Iraq -- When It Will End
Every day brings fresh reports of killings in Iraq -- US & other occupation soldiers, yes, but even more Iraqis -- Sunnis & Shiites alike. Why this last?
Iraq has been in an interregnum since Saddam was brought down. So long as the occupation lasts, there is no long-term successor regime. Therefore political jockeying for power must continue -- pari passu with the occupation. Therefore -- so long as the occupation continues -- potential rivals for power (& their supporters) will also continue to be killed; -- at _all_ political levels: municipal, provincial, national.
Thus the longer the occupation lasts, the longer the interregnum, & the longer the political killings go on…And the longer ordinary Iraqis have to live with daily, continuing, fear, bombings, shootings, lack of water & electricity…
The occupation _can_ only end when the US politicians involved, feel they have squeezed the maximum political gain from it. At that point, the political benefits come from withdrawal; staying on means political losses. It is to be _hoped_ that this point is reached shortly after the 15 December elections.
At that point, too, the covert war for power amongst the various groups of Iraqi politicians -- Sunni & Shiite, possibly Kurdish & others -- will no doubt come into the open. The length of this power struggle cannot be predicted -- but winners will eventually emerge. Then & then only, will there be any possibility of peace & security for ordinary Iraqis.
Meanwhile the hapless Iraqis remain hostage to _two_ sets of politicians -- their own & the American. All that the Iraqis -- & their friends -- can do, is pray.
Iraq has been in an interregnum since Saddam was brought down. So long as the occupation lasts, there is no long-term successor regime. Therefore political jockeying for power must continue -- pari passu with the occupation. Therefore -- so long as the occupation continues -- potential rivals for power (& their supporters) will also continue to be killed; -- at _all_ political levels: municipal, provincial, national.
Thus the longer the occupation lasts, the longer the interregnum, & the longer the political killings go on…And the longer ordinary Iraqis have to live with daily, continuing, fear, bombings, shootings, lack of water & electricity…
The occupation _can_ only end when the US politicians involved, feel they have squeezed the maximum political gain from it. At that point, the political benefits come from withdrawal; staying on means political losses. It is to be _hoped_ that this point is reached shortly after the 15 December elections.
At that point, too, the covert war for power amongst the various groups of Iraqi politicians -- Sunni & Shiite, possibly Kurdish & others -- will no doubt come into the open. The length of this power struggle cannot be predicted -- but winners will eventually emerge. Then & then only, will there be any possibility of peace & security for ordinary Iraqis.
Meanwhile the hapless Iraqis remain hostage to _two_ sets of politicians -- their own & the American. All that the Iraqis -- & their friends -- can do, is pray.