Leaders and Crises

Alvaro Vargas Llosa discusses in a new article what allows for reforms in developing countries. In particular, he addresses a new IMF study that

"looked at sixty-five countries that have undergone institutional reform in the last three decades, asking itself what determines institutional change. This is where the study runs into some trouble. To answer this question they conducted econometric exercises mixing the data from the various countries and coming up with certain patterns."

However,

"The problem is that econometric exercises don’t really work with factors that have to do with ideas, choices, and historical contexts rather than numbers."

Llosa says the real answer lies in leaders and crises.