Katrina's Political Effects

Given the solid nature of President Bush's political base, I remain somewhat skeptical about the ability of the administration's failed response to the hurricane to cause him long-term political harm. But a couple of events in the last couple of days offer a glimpse of the hurricane's impact on broader political forces.

First, in Missouri, the Dems' strongest possible Senate candidate, Auditor Claire McCaskill, has announced a challenge to GOP incumbent Jim Talent. Talent is in many ways an accidental senator, elected very narrowly in 2002 over Jean Carnahan, who was a victim of the Dems' ill-considered strategy to ignore security issues in the year's midterm elections. McCaskill's bid makes Missouri a toss-up state for the fall. The Dems have no chance of taking control of the Senate in 2006, but a two-seat gain is now within the realm of possibility.

Second, after two unsuccessful attempts, the California assembly approved a bill to legalize gay marriage. (The Senate already had approved the measure.) Passage puts Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger in a tough position: he campaigned as a social moderate, but if he signs the bill, he is guaranteed right-wing challenger in the 2006 primary. His response? The issue should be handled by the courts: according to his spokesperson,"he will uphold whatever the court decides." Since the GOP has spent the last four years saying gay marriage should be decided by elected bodies and not the courts, Schwarzenegger's reversal complicates the question, and provides the first sign that the Dems might be able to neutralize what has been until now a wholly harmful political issue.