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Yesterday's editions of both _The Economist_ and the _WSJ_ each have two good articles finguring the Feds in Katrina.
The Science Journal column by Sharon Begley in the latter is especially good, and cites a 2000 book by Theordore Steinberg, "Acts of God: The Unnatural History of Natural Disasters in America," which point to the human actions that have exacerbated these calamities.
Begley notes that since 1930 about 1900 sq. miles of wetlands, barrier islands, and tupelo stands in the New Orleans area have been removed by the Army Corps of Engineers. These would have absorbed energy and water from the storm surges, which, according to some studies, are about a foot higher for every sq. mile of lost marshes.
The levees themselves prevented the Mississippi from depositing some of the silt which would have replenished the delta and marshes.
The Army Corps also reshaped and rechanneled the landscape and waterways in a way that worsened the potential damage.
Prof. Steinberg (a former Wall St. analyst, who covered the manufactured housing industry) is quoted as saying that thanks to the dredging, "the Gulf of Mexico is a lot closer to New Orleans than it was when Hurricane Betsy ripped through in 1965."
Yesterday Bush said that the federal response "is unacceptable." I wonder if he would apply this to the malign and tragic effects of the Army's handiwork?
The article on why people didn't evacuate reads like the experience of a young person who left home, moved to a distant big city, obtained a low wage job, and moved into an apartment. They don't know anyone in th big city. How can they evacuate if they don't own a car and have plenty of money? (And then they assume that most of the pooor people in New Orleans are in a similar situation. A bit atomistic.)
There are plenty of private vehicles in poor communities, and most poor people have lots of community connections (relatives, church members, and the like.) Further, many poor black people in southern cities have relatives that live in the surrounding rural areas.
That is how poor black people evacuate from low lying areas in the Charleston area. We have these problems regularly.
There are 50,000 people in New Orleans without vehicles. Supposedly 200,000 remained behind. There are more than 200,000 poor people in New Orleans. Many of them evacuated.
I have actually read people discussing evacuation by getting a flight out of town and going to a motel. How could a poor person do that? Well, of course, that isn't what they do.
The more common approach with more affluent people (especially people from off) is to drive off and find a motel several hours away. Well, most poor people don't do that either. (Affluent people from around here drive to a relative who lives inland.)
Most poor people have cars and they drive to relatives that live in the area in relatively safe places.
Those who don't have cars catch rides with relatives who do the same.
Obviously, there are people who can't manage. No one will give them a ride or they don't have any relatives on high ground in the region.
The plan where we live is for school buses to take people to public schools on high ground. This is
a last resort--everyone, including the poor--are encouraged to use their
cars and go stay with relatives.
Apparently, they didn't have a plan like that in New Orleans. I suspect it is because they are so far inland that hurricane threats aren't something that happens regularly.
The Mayor of New Orleans reacted with horror that school buses would be used to move refugees out of the city. He wanted all Greyhound buses brought to the city. That's fine, but my point is the horror about using school buses--which is the basic plan in Charleston.
Local government is responsible for emergency planning. The "threat" was that if we didn't have an emergency plan, then FEMA wouldn't give our community any help at all.
One element of a plan is finding places to deliver and then distribute emergency supplies. Where were the places in New Orleans?
To give them the benefit of the doubt, I think that they were focused on a vast rescue effort because of people on roofs and in attics facing the rising water. So, they didn't focus enough on relief supplies for those who weren't in that situation.
Then, they decided to evacuate the city. So it was getting buses to people to get them out, rather than supplies in to the proper locations.
Finally, when you have a mandatory evcauation, all the people who are supposed to step up and handle the relief effort have left. (Only a handful of key personel are supposed to stay.) The people who have left are supposed to stay close and come back soon, help the people who stayed behind and continue to provide help to people who return from evacuation.
Because of the plan to get everyone out (and no one come back) the people who know what to do are gone and haven't come back.
One element of planning that I don't know anything about is security.
(Our plan was that the County Sheriff would deal with that.)
That was a disaster in New Orleans. We have seen reports that the police had no orders. And some leaders have said that they didn't have jails so there was nothing to do.
It seems to me that the police could make looters put down TVs and the like. If the they refuse, then go ahead and shoot them. If they do, let them go away.
I saw reports where "leaders" just said that they need to focus on saving life and not worry about looting. Perhaps I am reading between the lines, but it seems to me that there was a decision to use scarce resources to rescue people and let the chaos take over.
Perhaps the looting is no big deal, but I think letting the small things go can lead to people shooting at rescue copters and deciding to burn down the french quarter.
Our plan included supplies for those coordinating the relief effort. So we had water and food at town hall. I presume the police do the same.
Finally, I know lots of people who refuse to evacuate when they could. It only becomes obvious that you are in trouble after it is too late to go. Before that time, there is a good chance that you will be fine.
Lots of people have evacuated many times and it turns out that it was unnecessary.
P.S. I'm from off and have a car and enough money to drive to relatives five to seven hours away. It costs about $15. I have done it a good number of times. Only once was it necessary.
Two excellent pieces. thanks for the links.