Murkowski & Gruening

Yesterday brought news from Alaska that incumbent senator Lisa Murkowski will run as a write-in candidate. Murkowski recently lost the GOP primary to far-right challenger Joe Miller, but polls suggest that the senator could be strongly competitive with a write-in bid. Murkowski isn’t the first Alaska senator to run as a write-in after losing a bitter primary. In 1968, the 81-year-old Ernest Gruening was challenged for the Democratic Senate by an ambitious, young former state representative, Mike Gravel. In a bitter primary, Gravel attacked Gruening as out-of-touch with Alaska, strongly implied that Gruening was too old for the job, and distanced himself from Gruening’s increasingly radical foreign policy viewpoints. Those who wanted a “senator from Thailand” could vote for Gruening, Gravel recommended; those who wanted a responsible Alaskan should vote for him.

Polling on the race was even less reliable than Alaska polling is today (which is to say very unreliable, indeed). But Gruening seemed to have the edge until the campaign’s closing days, when Gravel used an aggressive TV advertising campaign—heretofore a novelty in Alaskan politics—to pull ahead. He defeated the senator by 6 points.

Embittered by the result, Gruening refused to endorse Gravel. Then, rejecting the advice of his closest political advisors, he announced an intent to run as a write-in against Gravel and the GOP nominee, Elmer Rasmuson. The only problem? Alaska had an unusually stringent “sore-loser” law, which not only prevented a candidate defeated in a party primary from running as an independent, but also ordered the state elections board to disregard any write-in votes cast for such a candidate. Gruening embarked upon the campaign, but didn’t obtain a (favorable) ruling until six days before the election.

In this respect, Murkowski owes her right to run to Gruening—had he not challenged the Alaska law, her write-in bid would be over before it started.

The Gruening bid provides one other piece of historical guidance for Murkowski. In a final irony, the senator’s effort probably paved the way for the election of his nemesis, Gravel. The bad blood between Gruening and Gravel forces meant that the most ardent of Gruening’s supporters probably wouldn’t have voted for Gravel, especially since Rasmuson was a fairly moderate Republican. But with Gruening seeking the seat, around 15 percent of Alaskans were willing to choose Gruening over Rasmuson. Also, Gruening’s re-entrance into the race allowed Gravel to run as the sensible centrist, between the overly conservative Rasmuson and the overly liberal Gruening, and keep the attention away from his rather ill-defined views on most issues. Gravel captured the election with a plurality.

Murkowski’s write-in bid likewise should all but ensure Miller’s election. In GOP-friendly Alaska, a Democrat can win only by attracting a significant percentage of Republican votes, as Mark Begich did in 2008. Murkowski backers might have considered choosing Democrat Scott McAdams in a two-man race, given the lingering bitterness from Miller’s mean-spirited challenge. But now the anti-Miller vote will be divided—and Miller almost certainly will be elected, if only with a plurality.