Blogs > Cliopatria > Strategery or Synergy?

May 13, 2005

Strategery or Synergy?




I do not know about anyone else, but this story in today's Times about as rapprochement between Hillary Clinton and Newt Gingrich fascinates me. It is nearly impossible to know if the two are using one another for mutual benefit, if the piece itself is overstated, or if Hillary and Newt aren't really just old time pols (how we should all miss them) capable of making deals, working together, slapping one another on the back, and sharing a bourbon at the end of the day.

Is there really any doubt that both have their eyes on the White House? And of the two, is Hillary not the more viable? Right now, and for obvious reasons (the fact that the GOP is in power and thus has a platform; the general state of dishevelment of the Democrats) the Republicans have more wattage among their big lights, but Hillary has a few things that will give her a distinct advantage: An enormous fundraising edge over almost any Democrat; Name recognition; The Clinton political machine (given what our options have been, is there much doubt that we would be in the midst of a fourth Clinton term if the Constitution allowed it?); the lack of an obvious and anointed and incumbent Republican; and a record that suddenly would be hard for her opponents to pillory. Not that they won't try.

To be sure, Hillary also has some disadvantages, starting with an almost built-in opposition that will surely be higher than any other candidate both in the Democratic primaries and in the general election. But that opposition is mostly Republican anyway, and likely part of the 40% that seems pretty much allotted to one party or the other.

Rudolph Giuliani is the name most often bandied about, but what are his credentials to be President? That he oversaw New York City almost a decade ago (by the time the 2008 election rolls around)? That he came across as sympathetic on 9/11? That has always seemed like a pretty thin reed upon which to hang a presidential candidacy.

Photo-ops and gushing compliments from someone like Gingrich will help inure Clinton from some of the worst charges she is likely to face from the right. Her record and stunningly sensible policies on issues such as defense and security (is there a stronger Democrat than Clinton on these matters?) and abortion have gotten her both great press and conferred legitimacy on her. The fact that she has been willing to do the grunt work from the back benches when she could have been a star to begin with will only help among her colleagues. On the whole, Clinton is positioning herself brilliantly. Just ask Newt.



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Derek Charles Catsam - 5/16/2005

Ed & Ralph --
I certainly think Giuliani has the possibility of being a player. I just don't think there is much there there, if you know what i mean. lots of style, not much substance, and if he gets the nomination, I cannot wait to see the exact same republicans who always dismiss candidates freom the northeast suddenly explain how a former mayor of New York is their ideal choice.
I'm not certain, beyond the surface similarities, about RFK and Hillary. But it is an intriguing question. RFK also managed at least to SEEM less ambitious than Hillary. And RFK positioned himself to seem like the people's choice rom the getgo, he might be the only Kennedy ever really to be able to set himself up as the underdog -- it almost worked, too.
dc


Ed Schmitt - 5/15/2005

Don't you think Schwarzenegger had similar personal baggage? That didn't preclude most California Republicans from wrapping both arms and both legs around him, with the largest state in the union at stake. I said the pro-choice problem (meaning really all his social policy stances) was the biggest one he had, because the Republican base is what holds the key to nomination. But if he were somehow able to get the nomination, I think he'd still do well enough with a majority of the base of Republican voters to be a general election threat (particularly, again, with the potential to bring New York and California into the Republican column - not likely, but better odds with him than anyone else). I don't think guilt by association with Kerik amounts to much. Liberals were shocked, but I think Rudy and Kerik have the "tough guy" image the nation seems to want during this period, and all of that stuff was seen by many ordinary Americans as no worse than the hijinks of a detective in a Mickey Spillane novel. Kerik's indiscretions were worse than Rudy's, and it did sink him as a nominee, but he hadn't built up the font of goodwill that Giuliani has. My main point was that you cannot discount his perceived 9/11 role nearly as easily as I think Derek may have. Do I think he'll get the nomination? No. Do I think it's impossible? No.


Ralph E. Luker - 5/15/2005

Ed, Giuliani has all kinds of disabling baggage: he's pro-choice, he's pro-gay, he's been photographed in a dress, he had an affair going on while still married to his first wife, his choice for Homeland Security had all kinds of similar disabling problems ...


Ed Schmitt - 5/15/2005

The parallels based on presidential family connection (and subsequent superstar political status) and relocating to run for Senate from NY began 5 years ago, but the presidential run countdown is also similar. I have my own thoughts on this because it has been central to my research for the last eight years, but I wonder whether other folks have thoughts on how Clinton's positioning is similar or different (or more/less effective) from RFK. Of course you could point out obvious differences - Clinton is in a minority party in Congress and an opposition party holds the White House, she seems to be moving the middle instead of to the left.

On another note, I think clearly Giuliani is a heavyweight for 2008 - 9/11 won't seem like a decade ago because the White House will never let us forget. His bigger problem is being pro-choice in the Republican party of George W. Bush.


Derek Charles Catsam - 5/14/2005

Jason --
I think that is a fair and serious point. Wouldn't it be interesting to see Americans have to deal with their various bigotries if somehow Clinton and Rice, or perhaps Powell, were the nominees? I would imagine, however, that the filter might well happen at the primary level. Then again, it is at that point when a plurality can do it for you. That is why candidates have to appeal to their base early and then broaden the message as the general campaign rolls along. Still, once you get to a campaign with only two viable nominees, some of those prejudices might of necessity have to fade. It'll happen someday. I guess we might get to see if we're ready for it soon rather than later.
dc


Jason Nelson - 5/13/2005

Mr. Catsam,

I do not believe that Hillary has a good chance at winning the presidency. Surprisingly, this believe has little to do with straight issue politics. I do not believe that she will be able to hold the women's vote together and I believe that she will meet some resistance from the men's vote. I wouldn't vote for her because I don't agree with what she stands for. However, I believe that many others might be swayed by other reasons. I guess what I am saying is that I believe America may be too sexist yet to elect a women president. Heck, it’s been three seasons and America will get its first woman "Apprentice" next week, perhaps only because the two finalists are both women. Im rooting for Hillary, I don't think she has a chance. Not yet.

Perhaps it’s too early to talk about this.