"Old Catholics" -- A Schism from 1870-71 that Lives On
So will the Catholic Church in the United States see another exodus to the Episcopalian Church, or did those so inclined already leave long ago? If Episcopalians offered to host masses of Catholic liturgy, under (ex?)Catholic clergy -- in effect to house two congregations under one roof -- they might effect some interesting developments....
Liturgy and tradition, as opposed to theology, may be the primary factors retaining many American Catholics in the Church. If those factors can be accommodated elsewhere, Rome's budget will have cause for worry, and Ratzinger may be surprised at how small "small" can be.
Conversely, is there much chance that discontented anti-homosexual-ordination Episcopalians will defect to Rome?
Mass conversions either way seem unlikely, short of strong individual leadership in either or both directions. If the status quo holds, Ratzinger & Company can continue to take liberal money from American and European Catholics to pour into their literalist movement in countries where literacy lags.
Another interesting, but also unlikely, possibility is a broad schism. In 1870-71, the "Old Catholics" set a precedent. Forming in Germany and The Netherlands, they opposed the doctrine of papal infallibility and desired a more democratic Church. Other Roman Catholic splinter groups have since joined them. United in eucharist with the Anglican-Episcopalian Church since 1931, Old Catholics seem to number in the tens of thousands in the United States, but estimates range widely. Look for increased traffic to www.oldcatholic.com
Were I a liberal Catholic instead of a historicist Protestant with my own liturgical preferences, I might be more inclined to the vitality of the broader Episcopalian Church than to the curiosity of Old Catholicism.
Update: Here's another one: American Catholic Church, www.accus.us