Feb 28, 2005
Historical Lessons, Hyperbole, and the Crying-Wolf Phenomenon
Every time I see some analogy between the present and an extreme historical moment, I think, "Now how can that person expect anyone to take them seriously when the present really does get extreme?"
(This is an intentional use of the third-person plural pronoun as the third-person indefinite singular. Sooner or later, our grammarians will concede this common usage as potentially correct. I'll declare myself a part-time amateur grammarian, and take my stand.)
Most often I notice this in politics, when someone or the other gets accused of communism or fascism.
But every year, even every few months -- and this has been going on for years -- it seems like I'm reading some warning that the next flu pandemic, like the Spanish flu, is just around the corner. All that's missing, reads the story, is that the current bird flu mutate into one capable of spreading person-to-person, not just bird-to-bird and bird-to-person.
O.K., I acknowledge that's a scary thought. But after several years of this, I'm starting to let my guard down. (O.K., I'm actually getting flu shots for the first years in my life, but that's because I've got little kids.) Better put, I more expect to read this story for another 5-50 years than to witness such a flu pandemic in my lifetime. I'm glad someone's watching for it, and I'll even line-item endorse some spending on that. But the warnings are wearing thin.
Just one example of how imbalanced historical analogies can debase the currency of historical analogies in general. CDC, WHO, I hope you're listening....
(This is an intentional use of the third-person plural pronoun as the third-person indefinite singular. Sooner or later, our grammarians will concede this common usage as potentially correct. I'll declare myself a part-time amateur grammarian, and take my stand.)
Most often I notice this in politics, when someone or the other gets accused of communism or fascism.
But every year, even every few months -- and this has been going on for years -- it seems like I'm reading some warning that the next flu pandemic, like the Spanish flu, is just around the corner. All that's missing, reads the story, is that the current bird flu mutate into one capable of spreading person-to-person, not just bird-to-bird and bird-to-person.
O.K., I acknowledge that's a scary thought. But after several years of this, I'm starting to let my guard down. (O.K., I'm actually getting flu shots for the first years in my life, but that's because I've got little kids.) Better put, I more expect to read this story for another 5-50 years than to witness such a flu pandemic in my lifetime. I'm glad someone's watching for it, and I'll even line-item endorse some spending on that. But the warnings are wearing thin.
Just one example of how imbalanced historical analogies can debase the currency of historical analogies in general. CDC, WHO, I hope you're listening....