David Kampf: Not So Fast ... Rethinking America's Decline
[David Kampf is a writer and analyst based in Washington. Recently, he directed communications for the United States Agency for International Development and President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief in Rwanda. He writes for the Foreign Policy Association's blog, Rising Powers.]
Have we really reached the end of American hegemony? For those who think so, the signs of America's decline and the rise of emerging powers are everywhere. According to this line of argument, the world's sole superpower succumbed to overstretch. U.S. failures in the "war on terror" revealed the limitations of American military power, while its role in provoking the global economic crisis revealed the shortcomings of American economic leadership.
As a result, rising powers around the world feel suddenly emboldened by America's visible weakness. Brazil's president blames the worldwide recession on "white-skinned people with blue eyes," and Russia and China call for the creation of a new international currency reserve to replace the dollar. Even President Barack Obama concedes that "if there's going to be renewed growth, it cannot just be the United States as the engine." America's obituary, it seems, has already been written, and the next great powers have already been crowned.
Not so fast. America's decline is overstated, and the questions and assumptions about its imminent fall need to be revisited.
Does the financial crisis reveal America's relative weakness?
Quite the opposite, actually. The worldwide economic turmoil underlines the importance of the United States -- for better or worse -- to the global market. As the U.S. goes, so goes the world. When the American bubble burst, the speed with which the contagion spread beyond its borders is an illustration.
Conventional wisdom holds that the recent period of high spending, lax regulations and an overheated housing market reveal the weaknesses of the U.S. economic model. Analysts are questioning the wisdom of open economies and liberalization, when the "Beijing Consensus" of greater government control and intervention seems more effective at promoting growth with less volatility.
While there are flaws in the American model, its basic tenets will not soon be replaced. The global marketplace and international norms will change slightly, but recovery relies on U.S. leadership. International financial institutions depend on U.S. support, the success of producers around the world is contingent on strong demand from American consumers and the dollar will continue to serve as the international currency reserve.
Is the world shifting from a unipolar to multipolar order?
It's too early to tell. The emergence of developing countries, the re-emergence of former powers and the growing influence of Europe are all undeniable. Still, no one can match America's universal reach and military muscle...
Read entire article at World Politics Review
Have we really reached the end of American hegemony? For those who think so, the signs of America's decline and the rise of emerging powers are everywhere. According to this line of argument, the world's sole superpower succumbed to overstretch. U.S. failures in the "war on terror" revealed the limitations of American military power, while its role in provoking the global economic crisis revealed the shortcomings of American economic leadership.
As a result, rising powers around the world feel suddenly emboldened by America's visible weakness. Brazil's president blames the worldwide recession on "white-skinned people with blue eyes," and Russia and China call for the creation of a new international currency reserve to replace the dollar. Even President Barack Obama concedes that "if there's going to be renewed growth, it cannot just be the United States as the engine." America's obituary, it seems, has already been written, and the next great powers have already been crowned.
Not so fast. America's decline is overstated, and the questions and assumptions about its imminent fall need to be revisited.
Does the financial crisis reveal America's relative weakness?
Quite the opposite, actually. The worldwide economic turmoil underlines the importance of the United States -- for better or worse -- to the global market. As the U.S. goes, so goes the world. When the American bubble burst, the speed with which the contagion spread beyond its borders is an illustration.
Conventional wisdom holds that the recent period of high spending, lax regulations and an overheated housing market reveal the weaknesses of the U.S. economic model. Analysts are questioning the wisdom of open economies and liberalization, when the "Beijing Consensus" of greater government control and intervention seems more effective at promoting growth with less volatility.
While there are flaws in the American model, its basic tenets will not soon be replaced. The global marketplace and international norms will change slightly, but recovery relies on U.S. leadership. International financial institutions depend on U.S. support, the success of producers around the world is contingent on strong demand from American consumers and the dollar will continue to serve as the international currency reserve.
Is the world shifting from a unipolar to multipolar order?
It's too early to tell. The emergence of developing countries, the re-emergence of former powers and the growing influence of Europe are all undeniable. Still, no one can match America's universal reach and military muscle...