Peter Bergen: Afghan leader holding strong cards
[Peter Bergen is the author of "The Osama bin Laden I Know: An Oral History of al Qaeda's Leader.]
There will be much to discuss -- principally, of course, how to reverse the rising tide of Talibanization on both sides of the Afghan/Pakistan border, which is a key foreign policy challenge for the Obama administration.
But how long will Obama and Zardari have to deal with Karzai whose five-year presidential term expires this month and who is now up for election on August 20th?
The question is not a small one for the success or failure of what has become 'Obama's War' in Afghanistan. Karzai has long been derided as the 'mayor of Kabul' because his authority supposedly doesn't extend much beyond the capital. And his government is rightly seen as rife with corruption. The non-governmental organization Transparency International, for instance, rates Afghanistan, as one of the most corrupt countries in the world..
Despite these handicaps, Karzai is on track to win a landslide in this summer's election. Why? First, Karzai is a rather adept politician, something that his many Western critics don't often grasp. Consider the moves Karzai made around the time of the first presidential election in 2004:
-Karzai forced Ismail Khan, the powerful governor of the western province of Herat, to resign, giving him instead the consolation prize of the ministry of energy.
-Uzbek strongman Abdul Rashid Dostum was given a job with a fancy title but no power at the Ministry of Defense.
-And in July 2004, Karzai dropped Mohammad Fahim as his running mate for the presidency. Fahim, a power-hungry general who had awarded himself the title of field marshal after the fall of the Taliban, was later removed by Karzai from his post as minister of defense.
With these moves, Karzai not only skillfully neutralized his most powerful rivals, men who could field their own private armies, but he also increased the authority of the central government....
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There will be much to discuss -- principally, of course, how to reverse the rising tide of Talibanization on both sides of the Afghan/Pakistan border, which is a key foreign policy challenge for the Obama administration.
But how long will Obama and Zardari have to deal with Karzai whose five-year presidential term expires this month and who is now up for election on August 20th?
The question is not a small one for the success or failure of what has become 'Obama's War' in Afghanistan. Karzai has long been derided as the 'mayor of Kabul' because his authority supposedly doesn't extend much beyond the capital. And his government is rightly seen as rife with corruption. The non-governmental organization Transparency International, for instance, rates Afghanistan, as one of the most corrupt countries in the world..
Despite these handicaps, Karzai is on track to win a landslide in this summer's election. Why? First, Karzai is a rather adept politician, something that his many Western critics don't often grasp. Consider the moves Karzai made around the time of the first presidential election in 2004:
-Karzai forced Ismail Khan, the powerful governor of the western province of Herat, to resign, giving him instead the consolation prize of the ministry of energy.
-Uzbek strongman Abdul Rashid Dostum was given a job with a fancy title but no power at the Ministry of Defense.
-And in July 2004, Karzai dropped Mohammad Fahim as his running mate for the presidency. Fahim, a power-hungry general who had awarded himself the title of field marshal after the fall of the Taliban, was later removed by Karzai from his post as minister of defense.
With these moves, Karzai not only skillfully neutralized his most powerful rivals, men who could field their own private armies, but he also increased the authority of the central government....