The Role Of Moderates In The Republican Party

PORTLAND, Maine -- Merton Henry calls himself an"old-school New England Republican" -- fiscally conservative, socially moderate. He got his political start in 1948 working for Margaret Chase Smith, the legendary senator who challenged McCarthyism and was the first Republican woman to make a serious presidential bid.

In the 1960s, Henry served three times as state chair for Nelson Rockefeller, the socially liberal New York governor whose presidential bids fueled a conservative revolt against"Rockefeller Republicans." The lawyer twice headed George H.W. Bush's presidential efforts here.

But this year, Henry, 78, will vote for the second President Bush"somewhat reluctantly." He doesn't like Bush's policies on Iraq or the huge deficits created by the war and Bush's tax cuts. And he says other moderate Republicans share his lack of enthusiasm. Across the Northeast, once the country's most Republican region, Henry discerns"a very real danger" that some in his party will stay home on Election Day -- or vote for Democrat John Kerry.

A recent Pew Research Center study backs up Henry's intuition. It found that 83% of conservative Republicans nationwide were satisfied by their options for president. But only 57% of moderate and liberal Republicans were, down from 70% in 2000, when Bush ran as a" compassionate conservative."

Democrats have long labored to keep moderates and conservatives in their party. But this year, Republicans are nervously watching their left flank as GOP centrists express doubts about the war in Iraq, record deficits and the clout of social conservatives in the party leadership. Such disaffected moderates could determine which way Maine and other swing states go in November.

"A lot of simmering discontent will erupt if Bush loses," says historian Lewis Gould, author of Grand Old Party: A History of Republicans."There would be some sort of shaking out."

Party leaders are putting a more moderate face on the Republican National Convention this week in New York City -- where Democrats outnumber Republicans 5-to-1 and the last Republican for president to win the city was Calvin Coolidge in 1924. Former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani and Arizona Sen. John McCain spoke Monday night. California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger takes the podium tonight, and New York Gov. George Pataki introduces Bush on Thursday. All favor abortion rights and oppose a constitutional amendment barring gay marriage.