Martin Kettle: He wants to, yet he doesn't. Will Brown do a Callaghan?
[Martin Kettle writes for the Guardian on British, European and American politics, as well as the media, law and music.]
In early 1978, with the British economy still in crisis, the Tories leading in the polls and speculation mounting about the timing of the next general election, the veteran Keynesian economist Lord Kaldor sent a message to the Labour prime minister James Callaghan. Kaldor had studied both the economic forecast data and the political polling in depth, he told Callaghan's office; and he had reached a clear conclusion. It would be a fatal mistake to hang on until 1979 in the hope things might improve. All the data pointed to autumn 1978 as Labour's best chance. "It will be the Labour peak," Kaldor told Callaghan. "It may be a submerged peak, but it will be a peak none the less."
Well, as we now know, Callaghan failed to take Kaldor's advice - and the rest is history. In the autumn of 1978, there was indeed a Labour peak, just as Kaldor had forecast there would be, during which Labour even nudged briefly ahead of Margaret Thatcher's Tories in the polls. But Callaghan hesitated and, in May 1979, his Labour party was pitched out of office for what would become an 18-year long night of the soul in opposition.
Gordon Brown may have chosen to say in public this week that the date of the next general election is the last thing on his mind, but it beggars belief that this is actually so. Right now, Brown certainly wants the nation to see him saving the world or feeling the people's pain as he goes on his listening tour around the English regions this week. After that his aim is to be seen in the frame for a while with Barack Obama, as the planet's twin men of destiny. What Brown really wants is for the election date to be the last thing on the nation's mind. But it is inconceivable that it is the last thing on his own. Get real. He is thinking about the election morning, noon and night.
In one sense, he is absolutely right to do so. The power to call a general election before the end of a five-year parliamentary term is one of the few unmitigated prerogatives that a British prime minister possesses. It is his call and no one else's. Get it right, as Harold Wilson did in 1966 or Thatcher in 1983, and you are both a hero and an entrenched leader. Get it wrong, as Wilson did in 1970 or Callaghan in 1978-9, and you alone have to carry the can.
What is more, there are loud echoes of 1978 in the current party battle, and plenty of latter-day Kaldors bidding for Brown's ear at the start of 2009. Labour MPs and activists who six months ago had become fatalistic about their re-election chances under Brown and about Labour's chances of a fourth term, now see the polls narrowing and scent an unexpected opportunity of survival. Several senior ministers want Brown to keep the early option open. If the polls continue to narrow and if Labour even nudges into the lead, then the pressure on Brown to call an election would become strong and maybe even irresistible...
Read entire article at Guardian (UK)
In early 1978, with the British economy still in crisis, the Tories leading in the polls and speculation mounting about the timing of the next general election, the veteran Keynesian economist Lord Kaldor sent a message to the Labour prime minister James Callaghan. Kaldor had studied both the economic forecast data and the political polling in depth, he told Callaghan's office; and he had reached a clear conclusion. It would be a fatal mistake to hang on until 1979 in the hope things might improve. All the data pointed to autumn 1978 as Labour's best chance. "It will be the Labour peak," Kaldor told Callaghan. "It may be a submerged peak, but it will be a peak none the less."
Well, as we now know, Callaghan failed to take Kaldor's advice - and the rest is history. In the autumn of 1978, there was indeed a Labour peak, just as Kaldor had forecast there would be, during which Labour even nudged briefly ahead of Margaret Thatcher's Tories in the polls. But Callaghan hesitated and, in May 1979, his Labour party was pitched out of office for what would become an 18-year long night of the soul in opposition.
Gordon Brown may have chosen to say in public this week that the date of the next general election is the last thing on his mind, but it beggars belief that this is actually so. Right now, Brown certainly wants the nation to see him saving the world or feeling the people's pain as he goes on his listening tour around the English regions this week. After that his aim is to be seen in the frame for a while with Barack Obama, as the planet's twin men of destiny. What Brown really wants is for the election date to be the last thing on the nation's mind. But it is inconceivable that it is the last thing on his own. Get real. He is thinking about the election morning, noon and night.
In one sense, he is absolutely right to do so. The power to call a general election before the end of a five-year parliamentary term is one of the few unmitigated prerogatives that a British prime minister possesses. It is his call and no one else's. Get it right, as Harold Wilson did in 1966 or Thatcher in 1983, and you are both a hero and an entrenched leader. Get it wrong, as Wilson did in 1970 or Callaghan in 1978-9, and you alone have to carry the can.
What is more, there are loud echoes of 1978 in the current party battle, and plenty of latter-day Kaldors bidding for Brown's ear at the start of 2009. Labour MPs and activists who six months ago had become fatalistic about their re-election chances under Brown and about Labour's chances of a fourth term, now see the polls narrowing and scent an unexpected opportunity of survival. Several senior ministers want Brown to keep the early option open. If the polls continue to narrow and if Labour even nudges into the lead, then the pressure on Brown to call an election would become strong and maybe even irresistible...