Niall Ferguson: You Ask The Questions
The historian answers your questions, such as 'Do we face recession or depression?' and 'Where should I invest my cash?'
Who would you like to see win the US election? Ian Barker, Brighton
I was one of John McCain's foreign policy advisers when he was campaigning for the Republican nomination, but haven't been involved since the presidential campaign became a two-horse race. I think McCain was by a wide margin the best of the Republican candidates, but I can't see him beating Barack Obama, who has run one of the most inspiring and at the same time disciplined campaigns of modern times.
Like so many historic events, this has a financial back-story. Without the credit crunch I think they'd be neck and neck. But the economic crisis is surely going to hand victory to the Democrat, whose cool, calm and collected manner are an asset at a time of panic and pessimism. I will not be sorry. Obama has the potential to be a great president – and who could fail to be uplifted by the prospect of a black man as commander in chief, 40 years after the assassination of Martin Luther King?
What do you think are the biggest challenges he will face? Stephen Mottram, Newcastle
The economy, the economy and the economy – followed by Iran, followed by his own party in Congress. The trouble is that Obama's plan to spend around $1.3 trillion in tax cuts and new spending is going to be very hard to implement when over a trillion has already been committed by his predecessor to the financial bailout. At some point the bond market may take fright at the explosion of government borrowing. Alternatively, the US may be heading for a period of Japanese-style stagnation and deflation, no matter how much the Treasury throws at the problem. Neither scenario is going to make the next president's life easy.
Is the US in terminal decline? MARK SUTTON, COLCHESTER
No empire lasts forever, but the US itself is not in terminal decline. It has an immensely successful political system. Its economy remains the most attractive place in the world for entrepreneurs and innovators. It's social system is wonderfully good at integrating new immigrants. Sure, there are problems, but I would say the EU looks much more vulnerable at the moment. And let's not forget that the US is still miles ahead of the competition when it comes to military power....
Read entire article at Independent (UK)
Who would you like to see win the US election? Ian Barker, Brighton
I was one of John McCain's foreign policy advisers when he was campaigning for the Republican nomination, but haven't been involved since the presidential campaign became a two-horse race. I think McCain was by a wide margin the best of the Republican candidates, but I can't see him beating Barack Obama, who has run one of the most inspiring and at the same time disciplined campaigns of modern times.
Like so many historic events, this has a financial back-story. Without the credit crunch I think they'd be neck and neck. But the economic crisis is surely going to hand victory to the Democrat, whose cool, calm and collected manner are an asset at a time of panic and pessimism. I will not be sorry. Obama has the potential to be a great president – and who could fail to be uplifted by the prospect of a black man as commander in chief, 40 years after the assassination of Martin Luther King?
What do you think are the biggest challenges he will face? Stephen Mottram, Newcastle
The economy, the economy and the economy – followed by Iran, followed by his own party in Congress. The trouble is that Obama's plan to spend around $1.3 trillion in tax cuts and new spending is going to be very hard to implement when over a trillion has already been committed by his predecessor to the financial bailout. At some point the bond market may take fright at the explosion of government borrowing. Alternatively, the US may be heading for a period of Japanese-style stagnation and deflation, no matter how much the Treasury throws at the problem. Neither scenario is going to make the next president's life easy.
Is the US in terminal decline? MARK SUTTON, COLCHESTER
No empire lasts forever, but the US itself is not in terminal decline. It has an immensely successful political system. Its economy remains the most attractive place in the world for entrepreneurs and innovators. It's social system is wonderfully good at integrating new immigrants. Sure, there are problems, but I would say the EU looks much more vulnerable at the moment. And let's not forget that the US is still miles ahead of the competition when it comes to military power....