Karl Rove: Palin Could Make the Difference
Will Barack Obama and John McCain's picks for their running mates affect the election? I asked some leading political science professors what research on this topic revealed. Their answer: Running mates usually don't matter, but this may be an unusual election.
John Petrocik of the University of Missouri, Columbia told me his analysis of vice presidential choices between 1972 and 2004 showed they had an impact of "less than 1%" on the outcome of the election. "Running mates have a significant impact," said James E. Campbell of the State University of New York at Buffalo, "but only in their home state." If their home state is small or mid-sized, they add 2.5 points to the ticket's vote there. If they're from a big state like California, Texas or New York, the ticket's bump is half that.
Mr. Campbell also examined the Gallup Poll reports on VP candidates since 1968. Two of the best-received running mates were Edmund Muskie in 1968 and Geraldine Ferraro in 1984. Both were on losing tickets. And as Daron Shaw of the University of Texas pointed out, the lowest-rated choice for vice president, Dan Quayle, was on a ticket that won 40 states in 1988.
A running mate can have a larger "indirect effect." Mr. Campbell argued the VP choice "emphasized a strength or weakness" for the presidential candidate. Who VP nominees are and how they are selected provide voters information about the values and decision-making abilities of the candidate. This year, both Messrs. McCain and Obama made political picks, not governing choices. The political targets were not states, but attributes and voting blocs....
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John Petrocik of the University of Missouri, Columbia told me his analysis of vice presidential choices between 1972 and 2004 showed they had an impact of "less than 1%" on the outcome of the election. "Running mates have a significant impact," said James E. Campbell of the State University of New York at Buffalo, "but only in their home state." If their home state is small or mid-sized, they add 2.5 points to the ticket's vote there. If they're from a big state like California, Texas or New York, the ticket's bump is half that.
Mr. Campbell also examined the Gallup Poll reports on VP candidates since 1968. Two of the best-received running mates were Edmund Muskie in 1968 and Geraldine Ferraro in 1984. Both were on losing tickets. And as Daron Shaw of the University of Texas pointed out, the lowest-rated choice for vice president, Dan Quayle, was on a ticket that won 40 states in 1988.
A running mate can have a larger "indirect effect." Mr. Campbell argued the VP choice "emphasized a strength or weakness" for the presidential candidate. Who VP nominees are and how they are selected provide voters information about the values and decision-making abilities of the candidate. This year, both Messrs. McCain and Obama made political picks, not governing choices. The political targets were not states, but attributes and voting blocs....