E.J. Dionne: Young people could decide the election
The conventional wisdom on certain subjects is so deeply rooted that no amount of evidence disturbs its hold. That's how it is with those dreary predictions that young Americans just won't vote.
Since the late 1960s, the same chorus has been heard from election to election: The young don't care. They're disengaged. They're too wrapped up in their music, their favorite sports and their parties to care about politics. Predicting that the young will vote in large numbers is like saying the Cubs will finally win the World Series.
As it happens, the Cubs are doing well this season, and the evidence is overwhelming that this year, the young really will vote in large numbers--and they just might tip the election.
The trend started four years ago. According to the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement, or CIRCLE, electoral participation among 18- to 24-year-olds rose from 36 percent in 2000 to 47 percent in 2004. For the larger 18 to 29 group, participation rose from 40 percent to 49 percent.
The 2006 midterm election saw a larger increase in off-year voting among the under-30s than any other age group.
Then came this year's primaries: According to CIRCLE, the turnout rate for the under-30s nearly doubled between 2000 and 2008, from 9 percent to 17 percent.
None of this means that young people will vote at the same rate as middle-aged people or senior citizens. The young move around more, and voter registration laws in most states make it harder for the footloose to exercise their rights. And it's long been the case that citizens become more involved in politics when they settle down and develop stronger community ties.
Nonetheless, on present trends, it's a near certainty that young people's overall share of the electorate will rise substantially this year....
Read entire article at New Republic
Since the late 1960s, the same chorus has been heard from election to election: The young don't care. They're disengaged. They're too wrapped up in their music, their favorite sports and their parties to care about politics. Predicting that the young will vote in large numbers is like saying the Cubs will finally win the World Series.
As it happens, the Cubs are doing well this season, and the evidence is overwhelming that this year, the young really will vote in large numbers--and they just might tip the election.
The trend started four years ago. According to the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement, or CIRCLE, electoral participation among 18- to 24-year-olds rose from 36 percent in 2000 to 47 percent in 2004. For the larger 18 to 29 group, participation rose from 40 percent to 49 percent.
The 2006 midterm election saw a larger increase in off-year voting among the under-30s than any other age group.
Then came this year's primaries: According to CIRCLE, the turnout rate for the under-30s nearly doubled between 2000 and 2008, from 9 percent to 17 percent.
None of this means that young people will vote at the same rate as middle-aged people or senior citizens. The young move around more, and voter registration laws in most states make it harder for the footloose to exercise their rights. And it's long been the case that citizens become more involved in politics when they settle down and develop stronger community ties.
Nonetheless, on present trends, it's a near certainty that young people's overall share of the electorate will rise substantially this year....