Jeff Greenfield: The Curse of the Third Term ... Does it spell doom for John McCain? Nope.
Among the burdens Sen. John McCain carries is this apparently stern lesson of history: Americans don't like to hand the White House to the outgoing president's political party. In the post-FDR era, they have done so only once, in 1988, when George H.W. Bush succeeded Ronald Reagan. On three other occasions—1960, 1968, and 2000—a party's attempt to succeed a two-term president with a third-term successor failed. (And also in 1952, Adlai Stevenson lost his bid for a sixth Democratic term.)
Pretty convincing evidence that McCain has a tall mountain to climb, yes?
No. Look closer, and you'll see how shaky the mountain's foundation is. And this, in turn, illustrates a broader point: Political axioms based on history are often an exercise in assigning powerful meaning to events that don't warrant such significance.
Take another look at the third-term curse. While in 1952 Stevenson lost in a landslide, the other failures involved three of the closest elections in history. Richard Nixon lost to John Kennedy in 1960 by about 112,000 votes out of 69 million cast, a margin of one-tenth of 1 percent. (In fact, because of an Alabama ballot that spit Democratic electors, it's not really clear whether JFK won a popular plurality at all. And there are still die-hard Republicans who believe the election was really decided by sticky-finger election officials in Illinois and Texas.)
In 1968, Nixon was on the other end of a nail-biting victory, beating Hubert Humphrey (who sought a third Democratic term after JFK and Lyndon Johnson) by a little more than 500,000 votes out of 73 million cast, a margin of seven-tenths of 1 percent. And there are still die-hard Democrats who believe that if the election had been held two or three days later, the fast-closing Humphrey would have won.
In 2000, Al Gore won the popular vote by about 450,000 votes out of 105 million—a margin of one-half of 1 percent. And there are still legions of Democrats who believe … well, enough said.
Do these razor-thin contests demonstrate the power of the curse, foretelling that third-term efforts are as doomed as trying to boil water at 98 degrees Celsius? On the contrary, while it may be true that placing a close second only counts in horse shoes and hand grenades, these near misses suggest that there's nothing predetermined about a party's failure to hold the White House. A few minor twists of fate in each instance, and we'd have a very different lesson: that an incumbent vice president is favored to hold the White House....
Read entire article at Slate
Pretty convincing evidence that McCain has a tall mountain to climb, yes?
No. Look closer, and you'll see how shaky the mountain's foundation is. And this, in turn, illustrates a broader point: Political axioms based on history are often an exercise in assigning powerful meaning to events that don't warrant such significance.
Take another look at the third-term curse. While in 1952 Stevenson lost in a landslide, the other failures involved three of the closest elections in history. Richard Nixon lost to John Kennedy in 1960 by about 112,000 votes out of 69 million cast, a margin of one-tenth of 1 percent. (In fact, because of an Alabama ballot that spit Democratic electors, it's not really clear whether JFK won a popular plurality at all. And there are still die-hard Republicans who believe the election was really decided by sticky-finger election officials in Illinois and Texas.)
In 1968, Nixon was on the other end of a nail-biting victory, beating Hubert Humphrey (who sought a third Democratic term after JFK and Lyndon Johnson) by a little more than 500,000 votes out of 73 million cast, a margin of seven-tenths of 1 percent. And there are still die-hard Democrats who believe that if the election had been held two or three days later, the fast-closing Humphrey would have won.
In 2000, Al Gore won the popular vote by about 450,000 votes out of 105 million—a margin of one-half of 1 percent. And there are still legions of Democrats who believe … well, enough said.
Do these razor-thin contests demonstrate the power of the curse, foretelling that third-term efforts are as doomed as trying to boil water at 98 degrees Celsius? On the contrary, while it may be true that placing a close second only counts in horse shoes and hand grenades, these near misses suggest that there's nothing predetermined about a party's failure to hold the White House. A few minor twists of fate in each instance, and we'd have a very different lesson: that an incumbent vice president is favored to hold the White House....