It's too Early to Judge Iraq a Military Failure

David D. Perlmutter, associate professor of mass communication at Louisiana State University and the author of Visions of War, in USA Today (May 4, 2004):

The military historian in me answers, "Stay tuned." In about 100 years, we experts will have it all figured out.

The problem with judging military setbacks in the very short term is that even eventually successful wars seldom go smoothly. Wars are not won by infallible leaders with picture-perfect plans. The victors are those who candidly admit mistakes, abandon failing strategies and recast war plans to fit new circumstances.

So merely being in a muddle is not a surprise. The Iraq war, still hot and still costing American lives, seems to be going badly. That fact has been underscored by the 137 servicemembers who died in Iraq in April -- the deadliest month yet for U.S. troops there -- and now by accusations that U.S. soldiers abused Iraqi prisoners. But all other wars in American history have at times appeared off track.

Historical trends

* The American Revolution, almost until its last days, was a series of disasters, minor victories and draws for the patriots. If George Washington had died or had been sacked before the crossing of the Delaware, today we would say he was a poor war commander.

* Likewise, the Civil War. Through most of 1864, Abraham Lincoln despaired of victory; many in the South thought Dixie could still win.

* In World War II, for months after Pearl Harbor, the Japanese seemed unstoppable. Also, Prime Minister Winston Churchill was about the only political leader in the world who thought England could fight on alone against Adolf Hitler after the fall of France.

* Then again, in Korea, almost everyone assumed the war was over and won for America and its allies -- until 1 million Chinese soldiers argued otherwise.

* In Vietnam, there was no major battlefield defeat that U.S. politicians and military leaders could point to and say, "Hah, that's when the quagmire began."

In war, even the commanders don't see the big picture. There are so many variables -- many random -- that stymie the best-laid plans. Blunders and bad luck are common. The response is what matters. That's why every American squad leader knows his job is to "adapt, improvise, overcome." We, as a nation, must do the same.

These unexpected outcomes and unintended contingencies also teach us another lesson: Beware of experts. Historians, political scientists, military analysts and foreign-policy advisers can often tell why something happened. But we all make very poor prophets.