Andrew Leonard: So long, John -- gas is $4 a gallon
On March 7, the average price of a gallon of gasoline in the United States reached $3.17. Four dollars a gallon by summertime is well within the realm of possibility -- even if that comes as a surprise to the current occupant of the White House. Record gas prices? During an election year? What could it mean?
Let's review the historical record.
When Jimmy Carter was sworn in as president in January 1977, the average price of a gallon of regular leaded gasoline was 60 cents.
By November 1980, the price had doubled to $1.19. So long, Jimmy!
Four years later, the price had fallen to $1.11. Incumbent Ronald Reagan obliterated Walter Mondale.
In November 1988, the average price dropped even further, down to 90 cents. Vice President George H.W. Bush annihilated Michael Dukakis.
The United States phased out leaded gas in 1991, so for comparison purposes we must switch to unleaded. In November 1988, the average price of a gallon of regular unleaded was 95 cents. But four years later it had jumped to $1.15.
Sayonara, George the First!
By November 1996, the average price had risen 10 cents, to $1.25. But incumbent Bill Clinton still managed to beat Bob Dole anyway. The exception that proves the rule? Normalcy soon reasserted itself: In November 2000, the price shot all the way up to $1.55, and Bush the Second "beat" Al Gore.
So far, so good. The numbers tell a remarkably consistent story, notwithstanding the minor blip of Clinton vs. Dole. Otherwise, in every single case, it's the gas price, stupid. Rising pain at the pump spelled doom for the political party that held the White House.
The only significant exception to this pattern came in November 2004. The average price of gas had jumped again, to a sky-high $2.00, but Bush won reelection anyway.
And now we're up to $3.17, with $4.00 coming. Indeed, if you look at a chart of gas prices, unadjusted for inflation, going back to 1979, Americans have never seen anything quite like the great gas-price surge of the Bush presidency. The trend line is considerably less alarming if you adjust for inflation, but even then, the spike of the last seven years can be compared only to that of Jimmy Carter era....
If the next administration is serious about tackling climate change, as all three remaining candidates for president claim to be, some form of carbon tax or cap-and-trade system that penalizes the production of carbon dioxide will be put in place and likely result in higher energy prices, not lower.
Which leads to us smack-dab into a paradox. If history teaches us anything, it's that doing the right thing on the environment will likely result in the speedy ejection of whoever occupies the White House when the next election rolls around. Americans just don't like higher gas prices.
Read entire article at Salon
Let's review the historical record.
When Jimmy Carter was sworn in as president in January 1977, the average price of a gallon of regular leaded gasoline was 60 cents.
By November 1980, the price had doubled to $1.19. So long, Jimmy!
Four years later, the price had fallen to $1.11. Incumbent Ronald Reagan obliterated Walter Mondale.
In November 1988, the average price dropped even further, down to 90 cents. Vice President George H.W. Bush annihilated Michael Dukakis.
The United States phased out leaded gas in 1991, so for comparison purposes we must switch to unleaded. In November 1988, the average price of a gallon of regular unleaded was 95 cents. But four years later it had jumped to $1.15.
Sayonara, George the First!
By November 1996, the average price had risen 10 cents, to $1.25. But incumbent Bill Clinton still managed to beat Bob Dole anyway. The exception that proves the rule? Normalcy soon reasserted itself: In November 2000, the price shot all the way up to $1.55, and Bush the Second "beat" Al Gore.
So far, so good. The numbers tell a remarkably consistent story, notwithstanding the minor blip of Clinton vs. Dole. Otherwise, in every single case, it's the gas price, stupid. Rising pain at the pump spelled doom for the political party that held the White House.
The only significant exception to this pattern came in November 2004. The average price of gas had jumped again, to a sky-high $2.00, but Bush won reelection anyway.
And now we're up to $3.17, with $4.00 coming. Indeed, if you look at a chart of gas prices, unadjusted for inflation, going back to 1979, Americans have never seen anything quite like the great gas-price surge of the Bush presidency. The trend line is considerably less alarming if you adjust for inflation, but even then, the spike of the last seven years can be compared only to that of Jimmy Carter era....
If the next administration is serious about tackling climate change, as all three remaining candidates for president claim to be, some form of carbon tax or cap-and-trade system that penalizes the production of carbon dioxide will be put in place and likely result in higher energy prices, not lower.
Which leads to us smack-dab into a paradox. If history teaches us anything, it's that doing the right thing on the environment will likely result in the speedy ejection of whoever occupies the White House when the next election rolls around. Americans just don't like higher gas prices.