Fred Barnes: Can Bush Recover?
[Mr. Barnes is the executive editor of The Weekly Standard and co-host of "The Beltway Boys" on Fox News Channel.]
Can President Bush recover? It matters enormously in the 2008 election -- particularly in the presidential race -- whether he does or not. Either way, recovery or no recovery, the president will have a powerful impact on the outcome. If he fails to lift himself out of the political doldrums, his successor in the White House is likely to be a Democrat. But should he pull off a strong finishing kick, as President Reagan did in 1988, the prospects of another Republican president will improve significantly.
President Bush of course won't be on the ballot. But the status of his presidency -- whether he's seen as successful or not -- will frame the election year debate, just as it did when Harry Truman, Dwight Eisenhower, Lyndon Johnson, and Ronald Reagan left office after two presidential terms.
Truman in 1952 and Johnson in 1968 were seen as failures: Truman because of the stalemated Korean conflict; Johnson as a result of the unpopular Vietnam War. Both were Democrats. Both were succeeded by Republicans. Eisenhower in 1960, despite a deep recession in 1958 and 1959, remained personally popular, but his Republican administration was exhausted and uninspiring. Democrat John F. Kennedy won the 1960 presidential race.
Reagan, in contrast, demonstrated how a president's revival in his last year of office can save his party. A Republican, he was beset in 1987 by the Iran-contra scandal and cancer. But he recovered late in 1987 and 1988 with a string of successes on the overarching issue, the Cold War. The Soviets agreed to withdraw from Afghanistan and sign a treaty proposed by Reagan to ban intermediate range nuclear missiles in Europe. And Reagan's trip to Moscow was a dazzling triumph. The result: Republican George H.W. Bush won the 1988 election.
What's clear in these elections is that the candidate of the outgoing president's party is inextricably tied to that president. It's a political connection that can't be broken. The candidate can criticize the president, try to distance himself, and snarl like the president's worst enemy. But that not only won't work, it's likely to be counterproductive. After House Republican moderates met Tuesday with Mr. Bush, they leaked to the press that they'd informed him he's damaging the party by persisting with the war in Iraq. That won't help their re-election; they're tied to the president, too. The best tactic is to build up the president, not tear him down....
Read entire article at WSJ
Can President Bush recover? It matters enormously in the 2008 election -- particularly in the presidential race -- whether he does or not. Either way, recovery or no recovery, the president will have a powerful impact on the outcome. If he fails to lift himself out of the political doldrums, his successor in the White House is likely to be a Democrat. But should he pull off a strong finishing kick, as President Reagan did in 1988, the prospects of another Republican president will improve significantly.
President Bush of course won't be on the ballot. But the status of his presidency -- whether he's seen as successful or not -- will frame the election year debate, just as it did when Harry Truman, Dwight Eisenhower, Lyndon Johnson, and Ronald Reagan left office after two presidential terms.
Truman in 1952 and Johnson in 1968 were seen as failures: Truman because of the stalemated Korean conflict; Johnson as a result of the unpopular Vietnam War. Both were Democrats. Both were succeeded by Republicans. Eisenhower in 1960, despite a deep recession in 1958 and 1959, remained personally popular, but his Republican administration was exhausted and uninspiring. Democrat John F. Kennedy won the 1960 presidential race.
Reagan, in contrast, demonstrated how a president's revival in his last year of office can save his party. A Republican, he was beset in 1987 by the Iran-contra scandal and cancer. But he recovered late in 1987 and 1988 with a string of successes on the overarching issue, the Cold War. The Soviets agreed to withdraw from Afghanistan and sign a treaty proposed by Reagan to ban intermediate range nuclear missiles in Europe. And Reagan's trip to Moscow was a dazzling triumph. The result: Republican George H.W. Bush won the 1988 election.
What's clear in these elections is that the candidate of the outgoing president's party is inextricably tied to that president. It's a political connection that can't be broken. The candidate can criticize the president, try to distance himself, and snarl like the president's worst enemy. But that not only won't work, it's likely to be counterproductive. After House Republican moderates met Tuesday with Mr. Bush, they leaked to the press that they'd informed him he's damaging the party by persisting with the war in Iraq. That won't help their re-election; they're tied to the president, too. The best tactic is to build up the president, not tear him down....